A Couple Severe Storms Today

The coverage of storms along the dryline today is an open question. But any storms that can form and strengthen will have the capability of damaging winds and some large hail. Wind shear is weaker than yesterday, so the odds of supercells today is lower, but instability is sufficient to power a few storms. This is a marginal risk day (1 out of 5) in every sense of the word,…

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In the absence of incredible chase days in New Mexico and SE Colorado this summer, here’s a coupl…

In the absence of incredible chase days in New Mexico and SE Colorado this summer, here’s a couple of days from last season! The first near Lon, New Mexico and the second west of Roy, New Mexico. The southern high plains are an incredible place to storm chase with very little population and lots of wide open views! #weather #newmexico #nature #science

In the absence of incredible chase days in New Mexico and SE Colorado this summer, here’s a couple of days from last season! The first near Lon, New Mexico and the second west of Roy, New Mexico. The southern high plains are an incredible place to storm chase with very little population and lots of wide open views! #weather #newmexico #nature #science https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8QtbFeq5Gb/

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This Ridge of High Pressure Is Shifting East And the Jet Stream North

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east through the week, which is going to bring extremely hot temperatures from New England down into the Southern Plains. This ridge will also help the jet stream shift north and tilt. However, a cold front midway through the week may limit severe weather chances to the hotter and drier airmass further south for the first 1/2 of the week. Dangerous Heat: Don’t laugh at the folks in the northeast too much, because they’re facing down heat indexes over 100F.  Some of these areas don’t have air conditioning the same way folks in…

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Border to Border Severe Weather Risks Today

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from late afternoon into the evening across the mid-Missouri Valley and from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains. Further south, high-based storms with damaging winds and some hail are possible in the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into West Texas. Locations: Primary Risk Area: Northern Plains, most especially western North Dakota. Secondary Risk Area: Eastern Nebraska into Iowa The Other Risk Area: Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into…

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What Does The End of El Niño Mean For The Central U.S.?

The El Niño swing to La Niña is now fully in effect, with the official end of El Niño declared by NOAA today. But what does this mean for weather impacts in Tornado Alley and beyond? In our seasonal forecast, we noted that swinging El Niños (those rapidly weakening to La Niña) had a high correlation with very active Spring tornado seasons. We saw that play out once again this year. Looking ahead, there are a few trends that stick out amongst top analog years: Tornadoes are concentrated in an axis from the Central High Plains to Minnesota, including the…

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Severe Weather Risk in Plains Today

Severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas down to the Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening. Drier low-levels mixed with weaker wind shear will make the primary threats damaging winds and perhaps some marginally severe hail. Locations: Enhanced Risk Area: Northern Missouri, southern Iowa, and northern Illinois. Plains Risk Area: Kansas down into the Texas Panhandle Threats: Very Large Hail: Expected with initial supercells in the enhanced risk zone. Destructive Wind Gusts: Likely, especially with any bowing segments. Highest chances are in KS to TX. Tornadoes: A couple are possible, particularly with discrete supercells in the enhanced zone. Timing: Storm Initiation:…

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JAW DROPPING tornado filmed near Olustee, Oklahoma. This tornado was a long-track tornado which r…

JAW DROPPING tornado filmed near Olustee, Oklahoma. This tornado was a long-track tornado which reached over 1 mile in width at times along its path, and it went through multiple phases. It was initially a large multi-vortex, then a large cone, and eventually a fat stovepipe. This day showed the power of what a seasonally strong low-level jet and a complex but enhancing storm merger can do to take a day from "maybe" to "oh my goodness" very quick. #weather #nature #oklahoma #tornado #science

JAW DROPPING tornado filmed near Olustee, Oklahoma. This tornado was a long-track tornado which reached over 1 mile in width at times along its path, and it went through multiple phases. It was initially a large multi-vortex, then a large cone, and eventually a fat stovepipe. This day showed the power of what a seasonally strong low-level jet and a complex but enhancing storm merger can do to take a day from “maybe” to “oh my goodness” very quick. #weather #nature #oklahoma #tornado #science https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8IWU4OJY-o/

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Some Severe Storms in Texas Today

Damaging winds and large hail are possible as a storm complex moves south and east through the day, with trailing outflow to its west creating new storms. Wind shear is pretty weak underneath a ridge, so storms will struggle to organize today across Texas to much more than transient multicell clusters and single cell pulse storms. Still, the strongest storms will be capable of severe level wind gusts (58mph+) as well as marginally severe hail (quarter size) at the very least. The linear complex itself may strengthen as instability increases ahead of it this afternoon, with an associated damaging winds…

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Scattered Severe Storms Around Today

Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the Southeast where hail and wind are possible. Locations: Risk Areas: Parts of GA/SC, the northern Plains, and the southern Plains. Threats: Large Hail: Potential in all risk areas, especially in the northern Plains and southern Plains. Severe Wind Gusts: Possible in all slight risk areas, with significant gusts in the northern and southern Plains. Very Low Tornado Risk: Possible in the northern Plains. Timing: Storm Initiation: Early afternoon in…

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Today Resembles a Strong Monsoon Day

We have a risk of severe storms today, though admittedly, the atmosphere really isn’t that primed for much more than some damaging winds and perhaps some marginally severe hail. Storms will form across the Southern/Central High Plains, but there is very little wind shear, so they’ll be rather unorganized and resemble a monsoon-like storm day. Southern/Central Rockies: Weak east-northeasterly upslope flow will lead to thunderstorms in the higher terrain. Southern Plains: Additional storms anticipated near a convectively reinforced front from west TX to southern/eastern OK. Conditions: Modest atmospheric flow may limit thunderstorm organization. However, a moist and moderately unstable airmass…

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This Week is Classic Low-Key June

If you asked me to draw up what I thought a low-key but active June storm pattern was like on average, I think I’d draw up something similar to this week. Early in the week, NW flow will dominate over the high plains with a building ridge to the south. By late week, a compact low could eject over the High Plains with severe weather chances as well. We should have near-daily, but low, chances of severe weather. Early Week Moisture will be in place with good upslope flow most of the weekend, with today’s severe risk extending into Kansas…

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Line With Damaging Winds in CO/KS Today, Supercells in MO

Storms will form in an environment characterized by high cloud bases and strong downdraft CAPE today, which will generate near instant cold pools and cell mergers. This will create a linear complex which will march from NE Colorado down to SC Kansas and perhaps even Oklahoma. Locations: Primary Risk Area: Eastern Colorado and western Kansas Secondary Risk Area: Central/Southern Missouri Threats:  Very Large Hail: Potential during the first few hours of storm development, especially in the enhanced risk area. Damaging Winds: Widespread damaging winds are expected during the evening as storms move into Kansas. Non-Zero Tornado Risk: A tornado is…

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MONSTER tornado showing off the very important storm spotter concept that the tornado is bigger t…

MONSTER tornado showing off the very important storm spotter concept that the tornado is bigger than the condensation funnel you see. In this case, there was consistent ground contact underneath a huge portion of the meso (under the laminar bowl especially). I was halfway convinced this thing was going to condense fully in seconds and become a monster visually. As a general rule of thumb, anytime I see something like this happening I try to stay under the horseshoe cut in the updraft because I have seen tornadoes that look like this grow very rapidly in size and strength in mere seconds. #weather #science #tornado #oklahoma #twister

MONSTER tornado showing off the very important storm spotter concept that the tornado is bigger than the condensation funnel you see. In this case, there was consistent ground contact underneath a huge portion of the meso (under the laminar bowl especially). I was halfway convinced this thing was going to condense fully in seconds and become a monster visually. As a general rule of thumb, anytime I see something like this happening I try to stay under the horseshoe cut in the updraft because I have seen tornadoes that look like this grow very rapidly in size and strength in…

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Supercells Likely This Afternoon in Nebraska

Rapid thunderstorm development, including one or two intensifying supercells, is likely between 2-4 PM CDT. Expect large hail (over 2 inches), strong gusts, and possible tornadoes. Current Conditions: Rapid destabilization and weakening inhibition due to increasing low-level moisture and warm temperatures. Trigger: Weak perturbations and strong deep-layer lift are supporting high-based convective development. Expected Development: As temperatures reach the mid-80s and dew points rise into the 60s, convective temperatures will be met. This will align with deep-layer lift, leading to potential supercell development.  Risks: Large hail, strong surface gusts, and potential tornadoes as storms mature and move southeast.

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Driving up on a powerful rotating thunderstorm with very large hail (and eventually a tornado) in…

Driving up on a powerful rotating thunderstorm with very large hail (and eventually a tornado) in Western #Oklahoma. Storms that look like this can fool casual storm watchers because they seem small and inocuous, but this cell not only dropped very large hail -- it also produced a damaging tornado on the SE side of the small community of Cordell, Oklahoma. Anytime a storm updraft acquires rotation and becomes a supercell, they have to be carefully monitored for very severe weather. Even if the rain seems "light" doesn't mean that there isn't giant hail within the storm or that the tornado risk is low. Every storm is different and the weather does wild things. #weather #nature #science #supercell #lpsupercell

Driving up on a powerful rotating thunderstorm with very large hail (and eventually a tornado) in Western #Oklahoma. Storms that look like this can fool casual storm watchers because they seem small and inocuous, but this cell not only dropped very large hail — it also produced a damaging tornado on the SE side of the small community of Cordell, Oklahoma. Anytime a storm updraft acquires rotation and becomes a supercell, they have to be carefully monitored for very severe weather. Even if the rain seems “light” doesn’t mean that there isn’t giant hail within the storm or that the…

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With spring right around the corner views, like this could become a reality in tornado alley. 5/24/16 Dodge City, KS ? @brettwrightphoto #kswx #weather #nature

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