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Severe Weather Possible With an Evening Tornado Threat

Severe weather will be possible today from southern South Dakota to Texas. Storm coverage will be highest in the northern and southern ends of the risk area, with the middle portions having few or no storms before sunset. After dark, lift increases, and storms should become more numerous across the risk area. A couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are possible. Locations: An enhanced risk of severe weather…

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Severe Weather Tomorrow, Let’s Break it Down

An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms exists across portions of Nebraska, Kansas, western Oklahoma, and western North Texas. Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely. Locations: Nebraska Kansas Western Oklahoma Western North Texas Threats: Large to very large hail Damaging wind gusts A few tornadoes Timing: Monday from the afternoon well into the overnight hours. Discussion Weather Development: A deepening upper-level low in the Great Basin will drive storm development across the Plains states. While moisture across the region will be limited with northward extent, it will be offset by strong wind shear and rising motion within the atmosphere. Storm Evolution: Initial…

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Enhanced Threat of Storms Tomorrow, But…

As we look towards tomorrow, there is an enhanced risk (3/5) outlined from Western Oklahoma to NW Texas. A cursory glance at weather models this morning actually say that enhanced area may be storm free throughout the event, with the best chances of storm development just north and south of the enhanced risk zone. If storms can form, they’ll be dealing with strong capping just east of the dryline in all locations, so they may struggle to organize in the low-levels with that in mind. There’s a low tornado risk, but the bigger risk is likely large hail with any…

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Model Watch: 48 Hours Out Edition

We just hit the 48-hour window for Monday’s event, which means we have a treasure trove of data to work through. Here is where things stand: Almost every model does not form storms until sunset on Monday, some much later than that. This is due to the delayed wave timing we’ve talked about a couple of times, as well as a stronger cap than forecast prior, both working in tandem. The system coming out is very powerful and there will almost certainly be severe weather on Monday even still. The higher-end Monday scenarios that social media was buzzing about earlier…

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ON THIS DAY: We chased supercell thunderstorms across Southwest Oklahoma with a dominant HP cell …

ON THIS DAY: We chased supercell thunderstorms across Southwest Oklahoma with a dominant HP cell emerging. If you've ever driven through or visited this region, you know the rocky hills/mountains make for compelling photographic subjects, especially when a monster storm lurks. However the problem with that is the Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge sits just north and west of Lawton, which is basically an impenitrable barrier when it comes to storm chasing. So as this monster cell approached the refuge, we could only sit and watch as a funnel descended from the skies and was wrapped in heavy rain. This was a day that featured low LCLs (cloud bases) and strong low-level wind shear. But it was just a warm up for the next day (post coming tomorrow). - 4/13/12#weather #nature #science #oklahomaweather

ON THIS DAY: We chased supercell thunderstorms across Southwest Oklahoma with a dominant HP cell emerging. If you’ve ever driven through or visited this region, you know the rocky hills/mountains make for compelling photographic subjects, especially when a monster storm lurks. However the problem with that is the Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge sits just north and west of Lawton, which is basically an impenitrable barrier when it comes to storm chasing. So as this monster cell approached the refuge, we could only sit and watch as a funnel descended from the skies and was wrapped in heavy rain. This was…

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Let’s Check In With Monday

We’re now less than 60 hours away from Monday’s potential severe weather event. Here are some quick notes on where things stand: The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk for Monday. This is a good and solid risk outline at this point that runs from Kansas to Texas. Right now the biggest threats inside the enhanced risk are giant hail and a few tornadoes.  This risk could see upgrades as future data comes in. Right now, a lot of models have been holding off on robust storm formation until evening — but if we see more signs of storms forming…

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Do You Need to Trim Your Info Intake?

One of the most important things we can do, apart from educating you all on storms and how they form/behave, is to give information that is high quality, accurate to the data, and balanced. We have always had as part of our public mission to capture incredible and say very loudly that weather is for everyone. But something we want to also now make public is the internal motto for this space when discussing weather, “Be realistic, be human, be good.” Today, there are more weather information sources than you can shake a stick at. We’re a couple of events…

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Here Are Some Things To Watch This Wekeend For Monday’s Threat

There will be much talk about Monday’s severe weather threat over the weekend, and for good reason: there is a lot of potential. But, at the same time, truly big days are pretty rare! As we move through the weekend, here are some of the questions that need resolving for Monday to reach big-time status: Cap strength: Some models are pretty bullish on producing a strong cap over the dryline. While most models do produce storms, not every model produces a lot of storms. Depending on the next factor, this could be a major player in the day or a more…

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Significant Severe Weather Episode on Monday?

All the talk next week is on Monday. That make sense because the Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting portions of the Southern Plains for a significant severe weather risk. While we want to stress details can certainly change at this range, there is a lot of model agreement across suites and ensembles of an environment supportive of supercells with giant hail and strong tornadoes on Monday afternoon and evening. The things we don’t know right now that will dramatically effect Monday’s risk: The exact location of the dryline. This is the boundary storms will mostly form off of on Monday. Models…

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Total Solar Eclipse as seen from NE Texas in 360°!

I couldn’t believe that the clouds parted just in time for this magnificent show. Watch the final minutes to totality and then experience the minutes of totality we got to witness. This was just an unbelievable day. I don’t think there’s any better way to share this experience right now than to just share the…

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Calculated risks are part of storm chasing. On this day earlier this week, we were faced with a t…

Calculated risks are part of storm chasing. On this day earlier this week, we were faced with a tough decision: go forward and likely get impacted by a strengthening storm's core (but likely only face heavy rain and small hail) or wait for the storm to pass and risk getting home at 2 a.m. It seems silly to type this now, but it was a very easy decision for us tired storm chasers on this day. We had already successfully documented the eclipse and storms were turning out less than impressive in NW Texas. So we opted for the risky move hoping we'd be rewarded with a much faster trip home... #weather #science#hail #storm

Calculated risks are part of storm chasing. On this day earlier this week, we were faced with a tough decision: go forward and likely get impacted by a strengthening storm’s core (but likely only face heavy rain and small hail) or wait for the storm to pass and risk getting home at 2 a.m. It seems silly to type this now, but it was a very easy decision for us tired storm chasers on this day. We had already successfully documented the eclipse and storms were turning out less than impressive in NW Texas. So we opted for the risky…

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North Texas Supercell and Tornado Threat (April 8, 2024)

After we’re done with the eclipse the team is jetting west towards supercell development on the triple point. The tornado threat should rise into the evening. There’s an enhanced risk today, mainly for gigantic hail (4 inches or larger) — but there is an appreciable tornado risk in North Texas. We’re expecting to be on…

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It’s Going to Severe Weather Till’ It Can’t No More

An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms exists for portions of northwest and north-central Texas. Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from mid-afternoon through tonight, with the severe weather risks lasting all night and into tomorrow. The main threat is large to giant hail, with a few tornadoes and severe wind gusts also possible.  Locations Northwest Texas North-central Texas Threats Large to giant hail (potentially 3-4 inches in diameter) A few tornadoes (mainly towards evening) Damaging wind gusts Timing Mid-afternoon through tonight and into tomorrow.  Discussion Weather Development: A deepening upper-level trough moving across the Southwest will create…

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Here are Clouds in Reality vs. An Aggresive Model

Here is an image showing the coverage of clouds in reality vs. what a model that has been predicting widespread cloud cover for the eclipse had prognosticated for this afternoon. As you can see, the end result is close, but clouds aren’t as thick as forecast in many areas and slightly less widespread than models had said. This might mean a few areas on the fringes of cloud coverage on the most aggressive models will still have views. Ditto for areas in cloud cover where some pretty prominent breaks are present. We’re going to be making a final decision from…

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We saw a couple of supercells yesterday in Central Oklahoma. These storms were pretty outflow dom…

We saw a couple of supercells yesterday in Central Oklahoma. These storms were pretty outflow dominant with really scary looking 'hang-me-down' features. But, these weren't signs of tornadic activity but instead they signified vigorous outflow of cold air from the storm's core. This overwhelmed the inflow and took out any chances of tornadoes in a prett meager environment. #oklahoma #weather #nature #science #storm

We saw a couple of supercells yesterday in Central Oklahoma. These storms were pretty outflow dominant with really scary looking ‘hang-me-down’ features. But, these weren’t signs of tornadic activity but instead they signified vigorous outflow of cold air from the storm’s core. This overwhelmed the inflow and took out any chances of tornadoes in a prett meager environment. #oklahoma #weather #nature #science #storm https://www.instagram.com/reel/C5ef4aTPXEP/

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Enhanced Severe Weather Threat Tomorrow

An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms exists for portions of northwestern Texas into extreme southwestern Oklahoma. Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning. The main threat is large to very large hail, though isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts remain possible. Locations Northwestern Texas Extreme southwestern Oklahoma Threats Large to very large hail (potential for stones larger than 2 inches) A few tornadoes Damaging wind gusts Timing Early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning Discussion Synoptic Setup: A deepening upper-level trough over the Desert Southwest will drive storm development across the region.…

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Eclipse Cloud Watch (Morning Before Edition)

We are now close enough to a pretty clear forecast of where clouds are going to heavily impact eclipse viewing. The short version: models have come around to an extensive clouds across much of the country scenario. Texas is basically a no-go if you can flex around. There is a chance of cloud breaks in far NE Texas and SE Oklahoma, but you will absolutely have clouds in this region and very poor viewing conditions across much of Texas.  Arkansas will be a mixed bag of clouds and sun. There will likely be some areas with prime viewing conditions and some…

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With spring right around the corner views, like this could become a reality in tornado alley. 5/24/16 Dodge City, KS ? @brettwrightphoto #kswx #weather #nature

WeatherCon Coming Soon

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Later this year we will have a new opportunity to learn from expert storm chasers with live talks and Q&A. We’ll have more details in the coming months.

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Weather is for Everyone

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Tornado Titans is a place where weather is truly for everyone. If you are a beginner or an advanced weather enthusiast, a storm chaser or not a storm chaser know this: weather is for you and this place is for you too.

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