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Severe Storms from Michigan to Texas Today!

Severe thunderstorms, including several tornadoes, are expected this afternoon to early evening, primarily across Iowa and adjacent parts of southeastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Missouri. Further south, more severe storms will be possible with hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.  Locations: Primary Risk Area: Much of Iowa and nearby parts of southeastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Missouri. Secondary Risk Area: SW Missouri, Eastern Oklahoma, Central Texas Threats: Tornadoes: Several tornadoes, some strong (EF2+ damage potential), are possible, especially in the primary risk area. Large to Very Large Hail: Likely with initial supercells. Severe Wind Gusts: Potential for destructive wind…

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Another Enhanced Threat Today

Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of northeastern Colorado, central/southwestern Nebraska, and northwestern Kansas. The main threats include large to very large hail, severe gusts (some 75 mph or greater), and a few tornadoes. Locations: Enhanced Risk Area: Northeastern Colorado, central/southwestern Nebraska, northwestern Kansas Threats: Large to Very Large Hail: Especially with sustained supercells. Severe Wind Gusts: Some 75 mph or greater, more common once cells evolve into clusters. Tornadoes: A few possible, particularly with sustained supercells. Timing: Storm Initiation: Late afternoon Peak Intensity: Late afternoon into the evening Meteorological Discussion: Synoptic Setup: A mid/upper-level trough over the western CONUS…

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Significant Threat of Severe Weather Today

Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Kansas into northwest Oklahoma from late afternoon into mid-evening, with potential for a derecho. Destructive wind swaths of 80-100 mph may occur, with localized extreme gusts exceeding 100 mph possible. Huge hail and a few tornadoes are also anticipated. Locations: Primary Risk Area: Southwest to Central Kansas Secondary Risk Area: Northwest Oklahoma, Western Oklahoma Threats: Destructive Wind Gusts: 80-100 mph, with localized extreme gusts exceeding 100 mph. Large Hail: Particularly with initial supercell development. Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are possible, especially with robust supercells in the evening. Timing: Storm Initiation: Late afternoon Peak…

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An Isolated Supercell Tomorrow is Likely to Be Photogenic

One thing I’ve been carefully monitoring for tomorrow is the possibility of a supercell or two from S. KS into W. Oklahoma being especially photogenic with the classic stacked plates/mothership structure. The drier low level environment will lead to higher cloud bases through much of the day, but I suspect as the low-level jet increases we will see a chance of a supercell really going next level when it comes to being photographically stunning.  That is dependent on an isolated supercell making it that long though, which won’t be an easy feat.

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Hail, damaging winds possible tomorrow

Severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of Kansas tomorrow afternoon and evening. Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Locations: Enhanced Risk Area: Western and central Kansas Secondary Risk Area: Dryline down into Oklahoma. Threats: Large Hail: Particularly during the initial hours of storm development. Damaging Wind Gusts: Likely as storms form clusters and propagate eastward. Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are possible, especially with discrete supercells in the early evening. Timing: Storm Initiation: Expected during the afternoon. Peak Intensity: Late afternoon through evening. Meteorological Discussion: Synoptic Setup: A shortwave trough will exit the…

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Sunday: Severe Risk Across Wide Area

Sunday will likely be a busy day of severe weather, with storms expected across a wide swath of area, but the tornado risk for this day will likely depend on what happens in the conditional risk area. Primary Risk Area: Storms will almost certainly form here in the afternoon but with high cloud bases contributing to strong DCAPE values, these cells will likely grow upscale into a linear complex. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with large hail also possible. Early on in storm evolution, a low tornado risk will be present. Secondary Risk Area: A weak line of…

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Two Final Days of Rest

We are approaching what may be a marathon chase session starting on Sunday. A small amount of high pressure ridging will give way to storm systems that should continue through much of the next week. Each day’s risks will be different and locations variable, but it is likely several areas will see multiple days of severe risk over the last 12 days or so of the month. Most days in this stretch won’t be prolific tornado producers. However, in a pattern like this at this point of the calendar, tornadoes are a question of where/when and not if. Stay tuned…

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We’re now entering the mesoscale madness part of the calendar, when you chase random days like th…

We’re now entering the mesoscale madness part of the calendar, when you chase random days like this one last Spring in late May in New Mexico where you didn’t expect much but end up with a brief tornado and stout supercell. This time of year, we live day to day with no idea what the next one brings, as moisture and instability is plentiful and it just takes a few small pieces of energy to turn a day from “stay at home” to “see tornadoes.” Building out the web’s largest severe weather educational video database takes a lot of work after all! #weather #nature #science #storm

We’re now entering the mesoscale madness part of the calendar, when you chase random days like this one last Spring in late May in New Mexico where you didn’t expect much but end up with a brief tornado and stout supercell. This time of year, we live day to day with no idea what the next one brings, as moisture and instability is plentiful and it just takes a few small pieces of energy to turn a day from “stay at home” to “see tornadoes.” Building out the web’s largest severe weather educational video database takes a lot of work…

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Late May Looks Busy

Sometimes, you don’t have to think too deeply about a weather pattern in the extended range. Models are in consensus that we will see SW and W flow across the central U.S. with plentiful moisture and instability around starting this weekend and into the end of the month. While it’s challenging to pinpoint exact days and locations at this range, it’s clear that the Central and Southern Plains should brace for another active period of severe weather, potentially including tornadoes, starting on 5/18 or 5/19. This is Not Unusual, But… This is a robust and consistent signal across most models,…

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Damaging Winds and Large Hail in Texas Today

Severe thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern Texas into southwest Louisiana today, with potential for large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado. An organized cluster of storms may evolve, enhancing the risk for damaging wind gusts. Locations: Primary Risk Area: Central and eastern Texas to southwest Louisiana. Threats: Large Hail: Initial storms may produce hail, particularly as convection intensifies in the afternoon. Damaging Wind Gusts: Likely as storms merge into a significant cluster, particularly by evening. Tornadoes: A tornado or two are possible, especially as low-level winds strengthen and hodographs enlarge during the evening. Timing: Storm Development: Expected to…

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Hail/Damaging Winds Likely Into the Evening

Several severe storms are ongoing across Northern Oklahoma and Southern Kansas with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats. The biggest hail will likely occur with the pair of supercells in Osage County to the North and West of the Tulsa metro area.  The tornado risk with those two cells is not zero, but it is very low as they’ve been quite outflow-dominant most of the evening (per our latest update). Storms further west will persist for awhile before weakening into the nighttime hours as well with hail and damaging winds the only threats.

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Impressive Supercell on OK/KS Border

This supercell on the Oklahoma/Kansas border is capable of producing very large hail along with damaging winds. Currently, outflow from this storm is overpowering the inflow, which is leading to an elongated and thick hook echo that isn’t wrapping around. This could change quickly though, and this cell is certainly the storm with the highest threat of producing a tornado over the next couple of hours. The environment isn’t highly supportive of tornadoes, but this is certainly the cell to watch.

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Enhanced Severe Weather Risk Today

Severe thunderstorms are anticipated across the Southern Plains today, bringing the risk of severe wind gusts, large hail, and potential tornadoes. Locations: Primary Risk Area: Southern Plains from the Texas Panhandle into the Northwest 1/2 of Oklahoma. Secondary Risk Area: Down the dryline in West Texas and in a post-frontal regime across portions of New Mexico, Colorado, and Kansas. Threats: Large Hail: Particularly during the initial few hours of convective initiation. Severe Wind Gusts: Likely to occur as storm clusters rapidly propagate from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into northwestern Oklahoma and southern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. Tornadoes: A…

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Storms on the High Plains can be particularly efficient hail producers thanks to the elevation an…

Storms on the High Plains can be particularly efficient hail producers thanks to the elevation and lower freezing levels. This is one of my favorite things about chasing from Eastern New Mexico up through eastern Wyoming. This also can result in particularly impressive radar images with high DBZ (blacks/purples/whites on most color tables) which look rather ominous. The reason for high returns is because of cores being so laden with hailstones. As these cores pass over any one place, they can create a scene that looks straight out of winter with hail accumulating over the roadways and landscape sometimes up to a foot or more deep. We capture this hailstorm over the weekend near Galisteo, New Mexico. #weather #science #nature #hail #newmexico

Storms on the High Plains can be particularly efficient hail producers thanks to the elevation and lower freezing levels. This is one of my favorite things about chasing from Eastern New Mexico up through eastern Wyoming. This also can result in particularly impressive radar images with high DBZ (blacks/purples/whites on most color tables) which look rather ominous. The reason for high returns is because of cores being so laden with hailstones. As these cores pass over any one place, they can create a scene that looks straight out of winter with hail accumulating over the roadways and landscape sometimes up…

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TOMORROW: Wind Machines on the Plains

Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast for Wednesday into Wednesday evening across the Southern Great Plains, particularly from the Texas Panhandle to southeast Kansas. Hail and damaging winds are the main threats, with a very low tornado risk also apparent across portions of Oklahoma. Locations: Slight Risk Area: Texas Panhandle to southeast Kansas. Threats: Large Hail: Transient supercells and clusters capable of producing large hail are expected. Severe Wind Gusts: Severe wind gusts are also likely with the stronger storm clusters. Tornadoes: A tornado or two cannot be ruled out, but the risk is very low. Timing: Storm Development: Late afternoon…

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High-Based Wind Machines on Wednesday

Looking ahead, our brief lull from more significant severe weather events should continue at least through Wednesday — though a few storms could reach severe limits with damaging winds and some hail. A potentially more potent environment will be in place on Thursday, but there are significant model discrepancies even at this range to deal with.

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Widespread Area of Severe Weather Today

Today and tonight, scattered strong to severe storms are expected across east/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana, with large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms may occur across the central and southern High Plains into central Texas, as well as the upper Great Lakes region. Locations: Primary Risk Area: East/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana. Secondary Risk Areas: Central and southern High Plains into central Texas, and the upper Great Lakes region. Threats: Large Hail: Particularly across east/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana, with possible hail storms…

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With spring right around the corner views, like this could become a reality in tornado alley. 5/24/16 Dodge City, KS ? @brettwrightphoto #kswx #weather #nature

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