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Yawn ?

Someone let me know when the pattern awakens. We are looking like we will be waiting out our first shot at real storms a bit longer on the Plains. The WPC 7-day precip outlook still shows almost completely dry in Tornado Alley. This is one of our drier months of the year so not surprising, but an impatient storm chaser can vent about quiet weather on their own space right?

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Official NOAA Spring Outlook

The official Spring outlook from NOAA has dropped with some mixed news for storm chasers. The official forecast calls for large portions of the Southern High Plains to be drier than normal this Spring. A lot of the activity in the past several seasons has been focused on that region, which may mean this year’s different vibes are being felt even at the CPC. There’s an above normal area on the Eastern Plains giving way to equal chances later in the Spring. It’s worth noting that even close to average rainfall can mean a busy tornado season. If you missed…

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Severe Weather Next Tuesday?

We are watching out for a potential severe weather setup next week in the South-Central US. Big model differences exist with the typical GFS half a state faster at this range (top). The Euro is slower and deeper, and if it verifies it is chase time for sure. Just noting this for now, we’re keeping an eye open.

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No Thunderstorms Forecast

You don’t see these outlooks very often, with no thunderstorms forecast in the lower 48 in any location. In that vein there’s a celebratory haiku: Vast skies all clear, hush,My heart longs for thunder’s thrill—Silence blankets dreams.

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Things Are Mellowing Out

We are in the midst of a temporary pattern shuffle with drier weather on tap for the next 7-10 days or so. The current system is going to really be great at shifting moisture well to the south, possibly past the Yucatan peninsula. A second surge of cool/dry air is expected by the weekend, which will once again, shift moisture well to the south. It’s not impossible that we see some rain/snow in this intervening period in tornado alley, but overall the pattern looks pretty tame compared to what we just came through. But that may only be a temporary…

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Textbook Winter System!

We don’t always geek out but goodness look at this textbook evolution of a winter system over the South-Central United States! Snow is falling, with some heavy totals and major travel impacts, across portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. Meanwhile there’s a quick transition to rain and then severe weather as you move from northwest to southeast. The same dynamics at play here also are at play on a much smaller scale with the supercells we chase. Back to looking at radar and satellite loops!

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Piney Woods Supercells!

They’re certainly starting off fast in SE Texas this morning with a trio of supercells just north and west of Houston. All tornado-warned! Low density severe weather threat will continue through the day in the Gulf Coast region.

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Winter Storm To Commence Shortly

Evening models continue to tell a similar story with relatively strong snowfall totals across portions of the Texas Panhandle into the Texas South Plains and then north and east into Oklahoma. Winter Storm Warnings are out across the region, as are winter weather advisories. Travel difficulties are likely in the next 24-36 hours, with the exact swath of heaviest snow totals still up in the air. Given the air temps and atmospheric profiles, the bust potential with this one seems quite high (either way). But, it’s a good idea to plan on travel difficulties over the next 24-48 hours in…

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Supercells in Central/South Texas on Saturday

Tomorrow will be another low-end day with just enough of everything for supercells and even a low-end tornado threat. The trend of this week has been for all of these low-end days to find a way to produce strong low-level mesocyclones and even tornadoes it seems. Will tomorrow follow that trend? Early indications from weather models are that a few supercells may take shape from south of Waco to San Antonio. An environmental analysis reveals ample 3CAPE available to tilt and stretch vorticity into the vertical. Critical angles are pretty favorable for at least decent streamwise ingestion as well. Thus, storms…

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Winter Storm To Cause Headaches This Weekend

Models are in remarkable agreement that we will have a pretty stout storm move into the region this weekend, with heavy snow likely for some of us. Models are taking a very similar track with the system, resulting in pretty solid agreement on the location of snow being widespread from Eastern New Mexico to Missouri and beyond. Totals are up in the air. This is a classic El Niño system with a lot of moisture available at all levels, but the temperatures in the near-surface layer are only just barely conducive to snow formation. Additionally, the ground temperatures are as…

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Cold Rain Set to Fall in Next 24 Hours

This is a true yawner of a winter system set to move through over the next day, with very limited moisture to work with. Some light rainfall totals will be possible for folks across the High Plains, but with such limited moisture available to this system, totals will decrease dramatically from west to east. A pretty consistent stormy period is setting up, though, with another more extensive system expected this weekend. Depending on that track, we could see more of a significant winter storm moving through. And as an update for Spring Breakers planning a ski trip: the Southern Rockies…

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Moisture Starved System Due in Midweek

There’s not much to say about the midweek system. Moisture is being shoved wayyyyyy south currently by a cold front, and it is unlikely we get very much back this way as a system moves into the Southwest and middle of the country by midweek.  The best shot at meaningful precipitation is in the Southern Rockies, where a pretty decent snowfall event will likely take shape. Clouds/some light showers are the main threats for the rest of us. The system after this one is likely the one to watch for more impactful weather for more of us.

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NW Texas Tornadoes: Fluke or…? (February 2, 2024 Recap)

Yesterday was NOT what many of us were expecting, was it a fluke? Let’s dive in. Chase with us in 2024! Find out how here: https://www.tornadotitans.com/itinerary/2024-storm-chase-workshops/ SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.tornadotitans.com/ VISIT OUR WEB SITE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND STORM CHASING NEWS: https://www.tornadotitans.com ———————– It’s not often you are ‘right’ but feel wrong,…

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Our First Tornado Risk of the Year! (February 2, 2024 Forecast Discussion)

Our first tornado risk of the year on the Plains is arriving today, but that risk is extremely low. Chase with us in 2024! Find out how here: https://www.tornadotitans.com/itinerary/2024-storm-chase-workshops/ SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.tornadotitans.com/ VISIT OUR WEB SITE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND STORM CHASING NEWS: https://www.tornadotitans.com ———————– Storms look certain today, and some…

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First Tornado Risk of the Year!

Our first tornado risk of the year on the Plains is arriving today, but that risk is extremely low. It’s the type of risk that I’d classify as non-zero but not likely. Still, there will be a lot of storms around, and hail seems a good bet. Let’s dive in. Aloft, winds in the mid-levels of the jet stream will increase throughout the day in response to the approaching upper-level storm system. In the low levels, the winds at 850mb are not particularly strong by early evening, but they could be enough…

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It’s Time To Talk Plains Severe Weather Again

–Deep Breath– It’s time to talk about severe weather for the Plains again, with a severe weather risk coming into the region tomorrow afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours.  An upper storm system is approaching from the west and will draw up just enough moisture (dewpoints in the 50s) to give us just enough instability for thunderstorms. With the storm system also increasing atmospheric winds as it approaches, wind shear should also be conducive toward some storm organization. As it looks right now, storms will form in the afternoon tomorrow and will take a bit to get going. They…

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Is A Severe Weather Threat Around the Corner?

A very small (probably marginal) threat of severe weather may make its way onto the Southern Plains this Friday. Just enough moisture (mid/upper 50s) combined with increasing lift from a large system and weak instability could touch off a few hailers. There’s pretty decent shear for storm organization if they do get going, with the most likely area being Western Oklahoma down into Texas. We’ll have more updates on this if chances look higher in the coming 24-36 hours.

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With spring right around the corner views, like this could become a reality in tornado alley. 5/24/16 Dodge City, KS ? @brettwrightphoto #kswx #weather #nature

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