LEARN ABOUT STORMS AT TITAN U

Titan Eugene Thieszen is reporting 4-8” of snow on the ground near Hanston, Kansas, this morning, with snow still falling. Back here at Titan HQ – West, we’ve had about an inch or two in Central New Mexico. As it looks right now, the heaviest snow will dissipate from west to east today as the upper system departs the region, but cold temperatures will remain. We are likely due for a very cold night for parts of the area into tomorrow morning. Snow should taper off across SW Kansas by the afternoon, and the freezing/frozen precip on its SW flank…

Here at Titan HQ west in Albuquerque, NM, we’re already seeing some flakes from this system that’ll track east through the weekend. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are out for large portions of the region — with the heaviest snow expected from NE New Mexico into Kansas. Looking at radar trends and model trends tonight, the forecast from this morning is still largely our thoughts. Expect the heaviest snow totals to be 3-5” generally along the track of this system. This matches our thoughts from this morning’s forecast blog. Winter is certainly here. We’ll all make it through…

The first snow of the season for many will unfold tonight into Sunday across the Central and Southern Plains, setting up the Christmas season for those of us with a bag of cheer. Looking at the image above, we see the 24-hour chances for 1” or greater or snow on the top-left. As you can see, there’s a reasonable shot at snow into nearly Central Oklahoma, with Kansas almost certainly getting a blanket of snow. On the top-right are the chances for 4” of snow or greater. The chances of this look much lower and in a smaller area. So…

This storm chase day was one that I left the house not expecting much at all. It was literally a “I am seeing tornadoes in Oklahoma tomorrow and this is on the way so why not” day. Have I ever mentioned on this channel you do not discount the High Plains on any day with…

Today will be a pretty active day across the South, especially in a corridor along and south of I-20 from Louisiana into Mississippi. Tornadoes will be possible, with some strong tornadoes even a possibility. Hail and damaging winds are on the lower end of threats today, but if a line can form overnight, at least a slight risk of damaging winds will exist. Aloft, a 500mb jet streak will move east and begin to nudge into the South into the afternoon. The increasing lift from this feature will result in scattered/widespread storm development from East Texas into Louisiana no later…

HREF bullish on today’s threat. HREF continues to be somewhat bullish on today’s storm mode evolution with a consistent UH signal through the afternoon into the evening. This is a sign that multiple models are picking up on the possibility of rotating storms from Louisiana into Mississippi. A strong tornado is possible in the afternoon and evening. Low cloud bases, very strong shear by late afternoon, and strong instability in the lower atmosphere all tend to point towards that possibility. We’ll be watching it with you all.

Morning thoughts are that storm mode will be a huge factor in what happens today. Models continue to show a consistent signal of spin with storms over Louisiana especially this afternoon. If you can get a dominant supercell mode into the late afternoon and evening when hodographs enlarge (bottom sounding) then strong tornadoes will be possible. The initial environment is also supportive of tornadoes all afternoon. It’ll be a pretty long day.

A potentially serious threat of severe weather will evolve tomorrow across portions of the south, roughly from Northern Louisiana into Western Mississippi. What: Risk of severe storms with strong tornadoes. Where: Portions of the South, most especially northern Louisiana and Western Mississippi.  When: Tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours. Discussion: As an upper storm system moves into the region from the west, instability, and wind shear will increase to create an environment potentially supportive of tornadic supercells. Right now, the environment looks on a razor’s edge, with instability just enough to be favorable for severe storms. Additionally, storm mode will be a potential inhibitor…

Storms will be ongoing throughout the day across Oklahoma tomorrow, with the potential for a few to produce hailstones up to severe size (quarter-size or so). ? Taking a look at forecast soundings tomorrow reveals that the instability tomorrow will be concentrated above the cool surface layer for the most part. There is just enough wind shear for some meager storm organization tomorrow. The peak of the severe weather risk tomorrow may be after dark when more upper lift arrives thanks to a passing system aloft. Further west, snow will impact the higher elevations of Colorado and New Mexico as…

It looks as if we will be due a severe weather setup for November after all out of this upcoming system, but the threat seems to be almost completely large hail on Sunday. On Sunday, an upper trough will emerge onto the Plains, with lots of upper lift in tow. However, strong moisture advection through the day, high clouds, and on-and-off precipitation should limit the overall surface heating. Forecast soundings for portions of Oklahoma show a cool surface layer with an unstable elevated layer aloft. MUCAPEs of over 1000 and solid shear values will lead to the possibility of elevated…

It’s time for another satellite 101 video! Did you know you can use satellite imagery to refine your forecasts to perfection? That’s what this series is hoping to teach you gradually through real-world examples! This one focuses on the June 21, 2023 storm day taking us from just before storms formed to just after major…

The weather between now and Thanksgiving for the Central/Southern Plains will almost certainly be wetter than we’ve grown used to. Models are still showing a lot of spread, but we’re starting to see more agreement, lending a higher confidence forecast in the pattern into Thanksgiving. As of right now, it does look like we will have a higher-than-average chance of seeing above-average precipitation for the next ten days. The WPC’s QPF map shows S/SE Oklahoma as a place to watch for healthier rainfall totals. As of right now, I’m not seeing a winter weather threat — but temperatures may be…

The National Weather Service (NWS) recently introduced the Winter Storms Severity Index (WSSI) — but you may not be familiar with what the graphics are saying. The official description of the product from the NWS says: The purpose of the Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) is to provide NWS partners and the general public with an indication of the level of winter precipitation (snow and ice) severity and its potential related societal impacts. The WSSI does not depict official warnings, and should always be used in context with official NWS forecasts and warnings. -NWS Website This product got a solid…

It’s not often we find ourselves in a pretty tight spot — but on May 6 this past Spring we did just that. As we miscalculated the timing of a storm moving relative to no road options due to a large lake, we found ourselves between an RFD with baseball size hail and a probable…

I’m not sure if you could draw up a more perfect map for calm weather across much of the country. Thanks to a cold front that dove through the lower-48 this past week, much of the country is mild and dry — with only very light precipitation across the country right now. This mild/dry pattern for most of us is about as classic fall as you can get for us — but it won’t last. A more amplified pattern is indeed on the way, which will mean more stormy weather for many of us. The Euro is still bringing a…

We’re seeing our first shot of snow here at the Titan HQ – West in New Mexico this morning. This begs the question, is this the first of several such shots this Winter? El Niño has a high correlation with cool and wet conditions across the Southwest and Southern Plains during the winter — this almost always means more snow than usual. For Albuquerque, below the mountains to the west and in the notorious ‘snow hole’ — this can still mean seasonal snowfall totals of 13” or more. Correlating that to the rest of the mountains in the Southwest might…

The upper-air pattern is set to undergo a pretty stark shift in the coming days, with a pretty progressive/flatter flow regime being replaced by a blocky/amplified pattern over the lower 48. The practical impacts of this will be a stormier/more active pattern for many of us, especially across the South/East parts of the country. A smaller/compact storm system will be moving through the S/C Plains tomorrow, with rain possible from Texas/Oklahoma and points east. We’re not expecting high-impact weather, just a nice soaking rain. This is good! As we gaze further into the future, as the pattern begins to shift…

During a dramatic summer storm chase, I captured this scene as a formidable supercell loomed over Las Vegas, New Mexico, a small town nestled at the base of the Sangre De Christo Mountains. Contrary to popular belief, New Mexico’s weather does flirt with the fringes of what’s known as Tornado Alley, averaging 7 to 12 tornadoes annually. This is comparable to the frequency observed in Wyoming. While the numbers fluctuate year by year, certain conditions can lead to the creation of severe weather events in the area. Let’s delve into the science of this scene a bit. The image showcases…

Here Are Where Tornado Watches Were Issued This Year This year felt like a year where the action areas were both south and west, and this map generated by the Storm Prediction Center really matches that gut feeling. From a busy early start in the South to a slow but steady pace in the High Plains later — this year seemed to do its best to avoid Kansas once again. That area of zero tornado watches in the middle of the state is somewhat surprising. The most dense area of tornado watches this year resides in the South and Mid-South,…

We’ve talked extensively about the Gulf of Mexico remaining warmer than average over the past few months. And when you talk basic meteorology, we know that warmer temperatures are capable of higher quality moisture.? Over the past week, the Gulf has cooled thanks to a strong cold front that dove south (bottom image), but you can see the Gulf is still warm for this time of year. If you look ahead at the upcoming pattern, we will transition from flat/zonal flow across the country to something more amplified to be sure into the middle of the month. I think that…

The active August in the country pushed us pretty far above average for the year on the tornado count, but a quiet fall is moving us back toward average again. This year has gone in fits and spurts, with us spending time above and below average at different points. The exciting thing about this year is that the typical ‘peak’ of tornado season in May and June was relatively quiet, but we’ve had so much ‘off-schedule’ activity throughout the year that we’ve been able to stay on track largely. This trend honestly fits with what I think has been one…

Listen, we generally keep a low-profile at Tornado Titans and I personally don’t take excessively dumb risks. Still, even being pretty careful, I’ve had a few pretty close calls over the years. Here’s a few of the scariest encounters I’ve had, but only a few (we have to save other spooky tales for future years!).…

Gorgeous supercell in the Texas Panhandle! A supercell from the backside at sunset south and west of Dalhart, Texas this past Spring. This storm formed off of the high terrain in New Mexico and marched very slowly south and east on its path. This cell exhibited some majestic structure during its life, and dropped some big hail. Chasing the High Plains the last few seasons has been more of a focus for us and the results have been well worth the effort. Chasing out in the open country of New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, and Kansas requires some patience and more…

Are we headed for a snowy winter on the Plains? It is no secret that we are heading into an El Niño winter for the first time in awhile. Historically, El Niño has been linked to above-average snowfall on the Plains, which may just spark some excitement for snow enthusiasts. However, it’s crucial to remember that this is by no means a guarantee because the weather does what the weather wants, especially on seasonal timelines. The folks at NOAA took a look a historical data with a fresh analysis using the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset (image above). Their findings show…

The weather models are in consensus: our previously highly amplified patterns are settling into a steady, zonal flow across the country. This is likely to result in milder weather for the Plains, along with a notable temperature difference between the north and south. This calm trend is expected to continue until late next week. If this holds true, we’ll have navigated a significant portion of the fall season on the Plains with minimal severe weather risks. However, keep in mind that the Gulf’s temperature remains unusually warm. This suggests that should sustained low-pressure troughs develop in the west, we may…

A shelf cloud advancing across the Eastern New Mexico Prairie earlier this month as a marginally severe line of storms marched east. Shelf clouds are not typically our go-to storm cloud shape that we love shooting, but in some circumstances they are as photogenic as anything out there. In this case, the precipitation core was thin/weak enough that the sun was able to shine through and illuminate the entire scene as well as the underside of the shelf, making for a spectacular view. #shelfcloud #weather #NewMexico

A look at tonight’s temperature map across the country reveals a very cool airmass that has overspread much of the country. But the more telling map is this one, the WWA map from the National Weather Service (That’s Watch, Warning, and Advisory). Freeze warnings are up for a big chunk of the country, indicating many areas may see their first freeze of the season tonight as temperatures dip. There’s still time to get your sensitive plants indoors and make sure your pets have a warm place to sleep through the winter. I’ll be the sleepy storm chaser hibernating until the…

Look we get it: It’s cold out there for the first time in awhile. The cold front responsible for our wet/cold weather is still surging south, and it will take the moisture that would fuel any meaningful precipitation with it. I think it is very obvious now, but it appears we are well underway into the cool season. With the way the pattern looks to evolve, it is likely we stay dry through the first week or so of November.  Beyond that, there are some indications of a wetter period starting around the Veteran’s Day holiday. We’ll be keeping an eye…

This is the first video of a longer series of videos on the basics of storm forecasting and observation built specifically for storm spotters, weather enthusiasts, and storm chasers. This video series will teach you all of the basics on how to forecast and spot storms successfully. Think about this series, when it is done,…

We documented this supercell during the tail end of the 2017 storm season. Raychel and Brett saw this high-based storm which was sucking in mega dust thanks to powerful inflow winds of 40-50 miles per hour. This storm had a wild appearance and was part of a very photogenic “June in the Panhandle™” day.

Not all storm chase days are equal and this day, well this day was something else. It was obvious we were going to have very explosive storm development in Central Texas, and they would almost certainly organize into supercells. This day started off how we expected but we knew, the day could not move into…

You would be forgiven if you assumed the fall storm chase season was already done after a short/rapid burst in September and early October. And I’d be willing to forgive you for such things as well. The upper-air pattern has moved into something pretty unfavorable for severe weather in the middle of the country, but changes could be coming. Currently, we are locked into strong northerly upper flow across the Plains with a ridge building over the Southwest. You’d be forgiven if you thought this was a model chart from this summer’s pattern — but it is truly what we…