Whoa! What a Season...
It's been quite the journey this year, here's what comes next.
First, I apologize for the sporadic nature of our updates this season. I’ve had a much busier calendar than usual, with competing projects within the weather space (and outside) that've completely zapped our ability to do everything.
But we’re back and I’m ready to rock and roll. Let’s discuss the pattern and what we’re currently working on.
Where We Are
The current pattern over the U.S. is chaotic at best. The polar jet is truly polar, shunted well north — until it isn’t. There’s also a cut-off low over the Baja and a ridge trying to build in within all of that.
In short, the pattern resembles an entire extended family trying to make a 3-bedroom house work.
The broad WNW flow over the middle of the country will allow for at least a few more days of severe weather chances over the High Plains that line out and move SE into the lower plains.
After that, we’ll see troughing return for the next week.
On a personal note: I’m sad I can’t chase on Monday due to work. But I do think it holds a lot of promise for the enterprising storm chasers who have chosen to go all-in on June.
A modest environment will exist into Tuesday over the Plains, with that low slow to fully move out. Expect continued severe weather risks.
SW flow will continue from Wednesday into the next weekend. Expect severe weather risks across the Plains basically every day next week. Tornadoes will be possible, though I don’t see a definite big day just yet. Still, I would not be shocked to see a 10% hatched type of day out of this pattern.
This next week is likely the last big week of severe weather for a lot of areas we typically chase — as ridging is set to build in (as is typical) after this upcoming week.
Overall this likely means the Southern Plains spring tornado season is about to be largely over — with the pattern shifting N and W in the coming few weeks.
This Has Been a Weird Year For Me
I don’t even know how to say it, but it feels like the season just began to me, yet I’m sitting at what I think is a pretty respectable (for me) chase day total of 19 days and staring at the end of the season.
I don’t think its a secret that I’m pretty picky and am definitely not one fo the folks who chase everything — but after two years where the pattern was pretty relentless in terms of pacing, this has felt like a weird year where the chase days have been pretty sporadic.
After this next week, I’m moving into production season a bit more. I’m still looking to chase some, but I’ll be slowing down the pace a lot (I already am honestly).
Be sure to watch the video and leave a comment on what you are curious about in terms of weather/photography questions.
With that said, I hope everyone has a great week and we’ll see you all next time!