The interplay between low-level shear and storm crowding is the critical variable here. When the jet's too strong it pushes forcing ahead of where instability can properly develop, and you end up with messy squall lines instead of discrete supercells. I chased a similar setup in March last year where the shear profile looked perfect on paper but storms congealed into a line way too early. The drought expansion point is underrated, a dry elevated mixed layer always creates that frustrating early-season cap that keeps things bottled up until conditionsalign just right.
Yep, the early/cool season setups oftentimes don’t work out because of storm mode issues. Really a lot of setups don’t work out because of storm mode issues haha!
The interplay between low-level shear and storm crowding is the critical variable here. When the jet's too strong it pushes forcing ahead of where instability can properly develop, and you end up with messy squall lines instead of discrete supercells. I chased a similar setup in March last year where the shear profile looked perfect on paper but storms congealed into a line way too early. The drought expansion point is underrated, a dry elevated mixed layer always creates that frustrating early-season cap that keeps things bottled up until conditionsalign just right.
Yep, the early/cool season setups oftentimes don’t work out because of storm mode issues. Really a lot of setups don’t work out because of storm mode issues haha!