A Severe Weather Threat in the South + Some Keys to Spring

Let's get down to business for 2026 shall we?

As is typically the case, the severe weather this year is mostly starting in the southeastern U.S., closer to the Gulf and all the moisture/instability it can provide.

1. Severe Weather Possible This Week

Friday should see a severe weather risk develop over the Mississippi River Valley as a strong storm system moves overhead, bringing ample Gulf moisture at the surface. The degree of instability is in question, but this is a classic cool-season setup at this stage.

Big Jet Energy: A powerful storm system aloft will move east, bringing with it heavy rain to parts of the Plains and snow to the Southern Rockies (both much needed!). As it moves east, moisture will surge northward from the Gulf, creating at least a modestly favorable setup for severe weather.

But Instability? One problem that plagues systems this time of year is the degree of forcing. The jet stream is stronger in the winter months, leading to more dynamic forcing that can crowd the warm sector with weaker storms and showers r…