Our sample size of triple-dip La Niña Spring tornado seasons is very low, with only two years recorded since 1950: 1976 and 2001. Both of those years were, for the most part, quiet years for tornadoes on the Plains.
Go deeper with our newest video.
The Latest: NOAA announced that we are almost certainly heading for our third straight winter of La Niña conditions, an exceptionally rare event. It has only happened twice since 1950: the winters of 1975-76 and 2000-01.
Climate Context: Historically, La Niña tends to shift tornado activity south and east away from much of the Plains.
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The two prior Spring tornado seasons following a triple-dip La Niña had different evolutions.
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However, the end result was the same: both years were below normal Spring tornado seasons on the Plains.
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Yes, but the global climate is much warmer in 2022 than it was in either 2001 or 1976.
The bottom line: While the two prior events have a lot in common, they did not occur in the same global climate picture as this one will. That will make this triple-dip event unpredictable even against standard La Niña expectations.
Check out the Tornado Archive for awesome maps like the ones featured in the video above: https://tornadoarchive.com/home/
