Our sample size of triple-dip La Niña Spring tornado seasons is very low, with only two years recorded since 1950: 1976 and 2001. Both of those years were, for the most part, quiet years for tornadoes on the Plains.
The Latest: NOAA announced that we are almost certainly heading for our third straight winter of La Niña conditions, an exceptionally rare event. It has only happened twice since 1950: the winters of 1975-76 and 2000-01.
Climate Context: Historically, La Niña tends to shift tornado activity south and east away from much of the Plains.
The two prior Spring tornado seasons following a triple-dip La Niña had different evolutions.
However, the end result was the same: both years were below normal Spring tornado seasons on the Plains.
Yes, but the global climate is much warmer in 2022 than it was in either 2001 or 1976.
The bottom line: While the two prior events have a lot in common, they did not occur in the same global climate picture as this one will. That will make this triple-dip event unpredictable even against standard La Niña expectations.
Check out the Tornado Archive for awesome maps like the ones featured in the video above: https://tornadoarchive.com/home/