Wet Pattern For Late Week, But Severe Weather?

The signs are all there for a deluge to hit the Plains, but severe weather chances are more uncertain.

You’d be forgiven for assuming a dry/cool fall pattern was going to settle in, given the strong frontal passage yesterday, which wiped out moisture over much of the Plains, but…that same moisture will make a big U-turn ahead of an upcoming system and return north by late week.

We’ll have plenty of wind shear thanks to the system bringing that moisture north — and lots of lift. But the instability will be the thing in question. Let’s look at it.

Where We’re At

A low centered over the Great Lakes has pushed a front down to southern Texas this afternoon.

The rich, tropical air over the Gulf of Mexico will help stall this front out (along with the departing push from the low over the Great Lakes), which will set the stage for this moisture’s return trip.