🌪️⚠️ Tornado Risk Sunday With Fast Moving Storms

Another early season setup on the Great Plains brings a lot of questions at this hour.

It’s time to visit Sunday again (we’ll try to get another blog out on the morning of). Overall, still think a tornado risk will be present in the early evening, but the main severe threat might end up being damaging winds with this one.

We finally have some higher resolution guidance and more models having a look at the setup so let’s dive in.

Big, Fast Moving System

The amount of forcing quickly ejecting over an unstable airmass is impressive on Sunday. The system quickly ramps up lift after mid afternoon and towards sunset. Depending on cap strength and moisture return, we’ll see storms form around 4 p.m. on Sunday give or take an hour or two.

The center of the upper system is back in New Mexico in the mid-late afternoon but will already be impacting the environment by then. By sunset (pictured), forcing will become overwhelming with a line of storms becoming very likely by then.

Moisture Return?

This setup is a great primer for analyzing the evolution of an atmosphere over time. On the P…