This Will Probably Be the Hardest Newsletter to Write All Year

...I'm really not sure how to get through this one but let's try.

Folks, this is the newsletter I dread each and every year. It’s the newsletter that makes me wonder: should I even be doing a weekly newsletter?

It’s literally the type of newsletter where I simply go: wow, the weather can actually be very dull.

I’m sorry if that felt like a bait-and-switch. I am the drama.

This Week

I’m going to be honest: I looked through the weather models this week, and I was pretty stunned at…how quiet it was.

If you ever wondered about the region we primarily cover for weather, just look for the white areas from the SW US into the Plains on this map.

The main story of the week is probably how warm it is going to be across a large portion of the middle/SW of the country. This is not me declaring winter is over; I think that is way premature. But is this a weeklong break from winter? You betcha.

Case in point, and just beyond the scope that I like to typically write for this newsletter, a strong cold front is on most models for around February 10th with a storm system bringing rain/snow to the Southern Plains and Southwest.

In short, When I’m talking about record heat in the winter and rain chances over a week away, you know it’s really quiet out there.

A Broader Look

With the week covered in record time, I am told by the consultants I need to make every newsletter worth reading. So here’s a special, speculative section to look at the month ahead and even the period just beyond.

The Climate Prediction Center is out with its February outlook, with a general trend of warmer than average conditions across a large swath of the South and East. This is a very loose La Niña-esque signal overall.

If you squint, you can even see some La Niña in this map, too, albeit a little less pronounced. The above-normal precipitation signal for the mid-South could run anywhere from a couple of severe storm events to snow events. Equal chances over the Plains typically won’t mean much since February is amongst the driest months of the year. Two big systems are usually enough to put us above average. Thus, I’m not reading too much into this map.

Despite major arctic intrusions, we’re now seeing neutral to rising temperatures across much of the Gulf over the past week.

Because of that, neutral-ish conditions down there will be short-lived as the Gulf warms to well above-normal.

What Do the Climate Models Say?

In the intermediate term, climate models have mixed forecasts for temperature, but the precipitation forecast roughly follows the CPC. Most weeks, the eastern half of the country experiences above-normal precipitation anomalies.

With warmer-than-normal temperatures mixed with positive precipitation anomalies, the odds are really high that the severe weather setups will begin in earnest at some point this month. This is especially true given that the Gulf of Mexico will likely continue to warm over the coming weeks without major arctic intrusions. It should be a fast and furious start if all of that comes together. We’ll see.

My Unique Storm Chasing Philosophy

There are many misconceptions about what people who look for bad weather on purpose are doing. Either way, I'm the exception to the norm in many ways, but I feel like my strategy is the best possible one for me. Here are some of my secrets for approaching storm season to ensure I'm chasing the biggest days.