The Problem of the Last Mile

Warnings are pretty good nowadays, people trusting and acting on them is not.

You are probably aware of the flash flooding catastrophe in Texas over the weekend, where way too many people were killed as floodwaters rose over 20 feet in just over an hour in some places.

Based on all reports, the forecasts of this event days earlier were less severe than the actual outcome, but the watches and warnings were issued well in advance with the right amount of urgency needed to take action in a life-threatening situation.

A tragedy like this one is preventable with the right action plans built on the trust of the warning process. That, unfortunately, didn’t seem to be in place for this event. As we look into the future, I’m alarmed that many things will likely continue to combine to create a toxic mix of conditions that will likely lead to more tragedies in the future: more frequent extreme weather events, less trust in institutions and science, critical understaffing and under-resourcing of the NWS, and a fragmented media system where truth is relative and facts are no…