The Pattern Has Changed 🍂⛈️

It's finally no longer summer. Is Fall severe weather coming?

The pattern over the lower 48 has finally changed from a summertime mode of operation to something more closely resembling fall.

I know you walked outside and felt that if you live on the Plains this morning.

That cooler/stormier vibe will be a pretty regular thing for a bit, as the upper air pattern’s shift will bring at least a quick burst of wetter weather for a large chunk of the country. The question is: will this result in some severe weather and storm chasing?

Let’s dig into the pattern change in the Big 3.

The Big Three

1. We wrote earlier this week about the models’ disagreements. If you followed along on social media or in our notes, you know that the GFS/Canadian’s closed-low scenario is the one that won out. Starting Friday, severe risks may exist daily across the Southern High Plains or even Central High Plains. Instability is the key question mark, as surface heating may be hard to come by. But if you get some cloud breaks throughout the day, supercells are likely given the wi…