🍂⛈️ The Fall Severe Weather Season Stirs to Life

This week will be a lot different than the previous ones.

We’ve had a pretty steady string of low-end severe weather setups the last week and that should continue over the next week. We talked about storms being possible near daily with lower-end severe chances last weekend and that pattern looks to largely continue.

Today/Tomorrow

It looks like the High Plains will be where the severe weather is centered for the next couple of days.

Today’s severe weather risk with a pair of level 2 (low) risks on the Central/Northern Plains.

Tomorrow’s risk will be centered more south, with almost all of the Texas Panhandle being under a marginal risk.

Storms today will be widely scattered and only loosely organized almost everywhere. Damaging winds and some large hail (prob on the marginally severe side).

Tomorrow, storm coverage should be increased and so will the ingredients. Storms will feature more robust updrafts, and with increased wind shear you can bet on a storm or two with updraft rotation.

A look at a sounding in the evening tomorrow in the panhandle reveals weak instability but moderate wind shear. There is decent low-level turning which will support a risk of a supercell.

The Workweek

This is a big week of transition for the pattern for the Plains. On the outs is the absolutely horrifically hot (and record-breaking) summer and coming in warm but not hot is autumn.

How do these temps look as a cold front barrels south on Monday? Highs in the 70s/80s are very much on the table.

As we move through the week, the atmosphere will warm ‘some’ but rain/clouds and the existing cooler airmass will keep temperatures in check much of the week. It’ll feel very much like early Fall…finally.

Driving this pattern is the ridge in the west retrograding back to the west and south, pushing W/NW flow over the Plains. This opens up the floodgates for cooler air to finally move south. Also pictured is a very large Hurricane Lee on the right side of the frame.

We’re going to remain optimistic that the GFS (and other weather models) are onto something with the rainfall totals forecast over the Plains back towards the Southwest this week.

The Bottom Line

This is a much different week than we’ve seen, and it’s for the best. We will see an active storm pattern this week, along with cooler temperatures.

• Temperatures will trend cooler area wide. Some areas in Texas may push back towards 90s by late week, but that’s far better than the near 110s.

• Storms will be possible each day in different areas. Some low-end severe weather risks will be issued throughout the week. I’m not seeing much of a tornado risk all week, but large hail/damaging winds for sure.

• This cooldown and pattern may not last, some models want to amplify the ridge and send us record-breaking heat again by the last 1/2 of the month. Models are showing a lot of heat build up across the Northern Rockies/Southern Canada, which signals cool air likely won’t be coming to the rescue for a good bit. Given the waning sun over the next few weeks, it will be increasingly difficult to get to the readings we’ve seen all summer, but we may remain unseasonably warm through the month.