Some Storms on the Dryline Today ⛈️

Some hail/damaging winds in West Kansas down to the Rio Grande possible.

A dryline will sharpen up a bit today as moisture screams northwards, setting the stage for a couple of storms to form along and ahead of it this afternoon. The best chance of storms firing is in Kansas, but a trailing risk extends all the way down to the Rio Grande in Texas.

A compact and weak upper wave will move east across the Central and Southern Plains today, which should probably be enough to get a few storms through a stout capping inversion observed on 12z soundings from across the region. The mid-level jet stream winds with this feature will be pretty modest, which means storms may take time and even struggle to organize.

A respectable low-level jet will be in place today though, carrying richer moisture into the target zone throughout the day. If dews were a little higher, you could almost imagine this to be a fluky tornado day — but I don’t see anything close to that materializing.

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