Significant Day Ahead In Oklahoma
Yet another tornado risk in the Sooner state...
Today is the kind of day that checks a lot of boxes on paper but is going to be a challenging one to chase in practice.
The Setup
A warm front will orient northwest to southeast across central and southeast Oklahoma. Storms should fire along it in the mid-to-late afternoon hours and go supercellular quickly. Giant hail and tornadoes are both real threats, driven by northwest flow aloft, strong low-level shear, and plenty of instability.
Moisture should pool along and near the warm front, which does two important things: it lowers cloud bases and adds extra instability compared to the ambient environment around it. Both of those factors favor tornado development. Expect several storms to fire in this regime, though they may become increasingly crowded and higher-precipitation as the day wears on. That transition from discrete supercells to messier storm mode is going to be the key forecast question.
The Chase Reality
The setup is one thing. Actually chasing it is another.
First, the terrain. I don’t know if you know this, but Oklahoma becomes a completely different animal once you cross I-35 heading east and south. The wide-open Plains give way to hills and trees that block your view, limit your escape routes, and turn storm positioning into a guessing game. Southeast Oklahoma is not where any chaser wants to be navigating a tornadic supercell.
Second, it’s a weekend. On a bigger risk. In Oklahoma. Chaser convergence is going to be real today. Every county road will have vehicles on it, and keeping up with cells becomes that much more difficult when you’re sharing the road with half the chasing community. It’s not that more people interested in weather is a bad thing. It’s just a logistical reality that anyone who chases in Oklahoma can attest to.
The Plan
Get out early. Stay flexible. Let the atmosphere show its hand before committing. We’ll have the live stream up and be reporting from the field sometime just after lunch. The environment supports a significant severe weather day. How the chase plays out is a separate question.
See you out there.