Severe Storms Today on the Southern High Plains 🌩️

A marginal risk across the Southern High Plains in December? Yep.

It’s not often you get a marginal risk across the Southern High Plains this time of year, but that’s precisely where we are today. There is a very low chance of all severe hazards today, including tornadoes. Let’s dive in

Today’s marginal risk outlined by the Storm Prediction Center.

What: Strongly forced linear segments in a weak instability environment. Hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible.

Where: Southern High Plains

When: Starting this afternoon and lasting into the night.

Discussion: What a perfectly unique setup today! I almost wished I was driving to see family today because there’d be some storm chasing in the Texas Panhandle!

Storms will initially form near an upper system across New Mexico. As they encounter an increasingly moist and unstable airmass to the east, they’ll become a linear complex of storms, with some severe.

The temperatures at the surface this morning are cool, but the moist airmass should result in weak instability with very cold temperatures aloft moving in. Combined with strong wind shear, that should be enough to get a thin/narrow line of storms to push through. 

As the atmosphere cools with sunset, storms should remain mostly below severe levels as they move further east — but storms should go throughout the night into the main bodies of Texas and Oklahoma.

Moisture is streaming northwards today, with very rich moisture on the way to the target area.

The upper storm system can be seen beginning to emerge onto the Plains.

You can also see the rich moisture just above the surface as 850mb winds pull the deep/moist airmass northwards.

A thick blanket of clouds over the Southern Plains is present which will limit surface heating.

One model shows a line of storms and where it might be located around sunset. Additionally, there will be storms ahead of this feature in the warm conveyer belt to the east across Oklahoma/Texas.

Storms will push to the east overnight with heavy rain.

A look at forecast soundings over the region shows strong curvature in the lowest levels with a backing wind profile aloft. This will help create/maintain linear storm modes with the potential for QLCS spin-ups.