Severe Risks This Week, March is Storming In

Tornadoes possible from the Plains to the Southeast

Spring is BACK!

If you follow us on social media (and you admittedly probably do if you are reading this), you know there was a very low-end threat today in the Southern Plains. As we move through this upcoming week, more threat days are coming up. Let’s break it all down.

Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning

A powerful storm system will emerge onto the Plains, bringing storm development during the overnight hours from Monday into Tuesday morning.

500mb chart for Tuesday morning showing a powerful upper low smashing eastward.

Storms should form in the hour or two around midnight tomorrow night. Due to strong forcing arriving, they will quickly form into a line over the Southern Plains and march east through the overnight hours.

The atmosphere on Tuesday night is characterized by a very strongly sheared environment, with over 500 m2s2 0-1km SRH. This is extreme. There is some potential for a pocket of near-surface stability, which might temper a tornado threat with the line, but I wouldn’t count on it. This feels like a classic sneak-attack QLCS overnight tornado threat.

Tornado threat Monday night into Tuesday morning per SPC is at a low (5%) risk.

Tuesday: The Main Event?

As the system moves east and brings its energy over increasingly moist low levels, the threat of severe weather may peak from Tuesday afternoon into the early evening. Storm mode and the degree of destabilization ahead of this system are in question.

The NAM is pretty messy, which is also somewhat common for that model. Still, a linear system with storms ahead of it will be a standard storm mode.

The shear on Tuesday is also extreme, with the potential for a more unstable atmosphere. Even in a linear system type of setup, you can still get strong tornadoes with soundings like this. If the storm mode were more discrete, strong tornadoes would be a pretty significant threat.

SPC outlook for Tuesday.

Our 2025 Tornado Season Outlook

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We Saw Just About Every Storm Type This Day

I had pretty high hopes heading into this chase day of active weather over the open desolate landscape of SE NM and W. Texas. However, storms from overnight pushed an outflow boundary strongly south, which complicated our chase by quite a bit. Still, by afternoon, the sky exploded with storms, and what followed next was a literal sampler platter of different types of supercells.

Stay tuned to our Facebook or Instagram for the latest!