⛈️ 🍁 Severe Risks This Week and Cooler

Fall vibes all around us now.

Bust out your favorite boots. Get those flannel pieces of your wardrobe ready. If you don’t experience an outbreak of pumpkin spice, corn mazes, and earthy tones this week, you just aren’t cut out for this season.

But this week will have more than an autumn chill; we’ll also see severe weather as a trough moves in from the west by midweek.

We will start the week off with warm conditions across most of the country as a trough builds in the west and moisture streams north ahead of it.

The aforementioned trough will bring moisture northwards at a slow pace starting pretty imminently. The most favorable parts of the trough should move through in between periods of favorable heating.

Cyclogenesis will be ongoing, with moisture streaming north on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focusing mechanism and questionable moisture quality will likely keep any storm from forming as the initial pieces of lift move over the moist sector.

There are still some subtle differences in how the GFS/Euro handle Wednesday, but it does look like the main belly of the storm system will be past the Plains as a cold front dives south. The moisture ahead of this feature (and a weakly convergent dryline) will be enough to cause storms to form along it.

Regardless of differences, I believe the GFS and Euro are onto something with an extensive line of storms along the advancing cold front on Wednesday. The Euro actually throws out some energy early on Wednesday with widespread rain/storms throughout the day.

Overall Thoughts

It’s early, and if the day warrants it, we’ll do a full-dive forecast blog on Wednesday. But for now, it looks like Wednesday is the classic autumn linear cold front day, with hail/damaging winds as the primary threat. With the storm system moving past by Wednesday afternoon, the low-level flow doesn’t ramp up much into the evening comparatively, with some weirdly shaped hodographs present on most models.

In the most basic terms, this is a classic elevated hail/wind risk right now.

Beyond Wednesday

As we move beyond Wednesday, it becomes apparent that our stormy period is not over. There will likely be a cooler day on Thursday on the Plains before another trough approaches from the west with renewed moisture and storm chances into next weekend and early election week. A severe risk could materialize in the South, but the trough’s energy will be well separated to the north so it might be a continuation of the risks on Wednesday as the cold front marches east.

Another trough is on tap for next weekend, with the pattern remaining unsettled for a bit here. Overall, this is a good thing, as much of the country is mired in abnormally dry/drought conditions.

A look at moisture returning this upcoming weekend. It could be another period of severe weather chances across much of the country. It would not be surprising to see a legitimate storm chase day with tornado risks come out of this next round.

Photo of the Week

This week, Tornado Titan Eugene Thieszen shares a stunning photo captured on the evening of October 22. Taken at 200mm, this close-up of Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) reveals remarkable detail. Although the comet is fading, it remained visible to the unaided eye in dark skies. Eugene stacked 20 images to achieve this clarity, enhancing detail and reducing noise. The photo was captured in Hodgeman County, KS.