Quiet Weekend Ahead But What Comes Next...

Pattern of the season potential developing starting midweek next week.

I joked within our Titans chat that if the late April run wasn’t the pattern of the season, then this storm season would go down as one of the better ones in terms of storm chasing quality.

And as we gaze into the mid-range, it is possible that an even more potent pattern is on tap.

But First, Quiet

A ridge is building in, and a cut-off low-pressure system is spinning out over the SE US. Both of these will lead to a warm and pleasant weekend, with most areas on the Plains and even into the Southwest mainly remaining dry.

The weekend pattern looks…nice?

But that nice pattern will end. The ridge will flatten and shift east, bringing a monster set of troughing coming up next.

Next Week…

By Tuesday, the cut-off low will end up flattening a bit and being shoved east by emerging troughing in the west.

That cut-off low is located over the SE but is now weak and moving east on Tuesday with strong flow nosing out onto the Plains.

Because of the cut-off low hanging around the SE for so long, moisture will initially not be high-end quality over the middle of the country. Surface dews will be in the 50s/low 60s, but the overall quality of that air is on the lower end. As strong lee cyclogenesis takes place, this will improve, and even still, we could see dryline storms as early as Tuesday.

Models differ on the surface response and path/speed of the system emerging on Wednesday. But all signs point to a severe weather risk that will bring the threat of tornadoes on this day somewhere over the Plains. Capping will be more substantial with southern extent, but well-timed waves at peak heating would surely be enough to fire a storm or two.

Large differences begin to emerge by Thursday on the GFS/Euro, but the overall consensus of an amplified pattern with SW flow aloft will likely bring at least some severe weather risk somewhere on the Plains.

To avoid diving in too deeply on details, we just won’t know given the varied model solutions present at this time. What we can say is that the SW flow and favorable overall pattern for severe weather will persist into the next weekend (17th-18th) and then beyond.

Don’t Overthink It

In late mid to late May, when you have a moist airmass below SW flow aloft — that almost always signals severe weather and tornadoes. We don’t know the details of which days will be most favorable, when any small breaks in the pattern will end up, and how substantial the threat will be on any given day. But overall, this is a pattern that will result in tornado risks over several days.

We’ll be out there chasing. I’ll try to get another update in here before the upcoming weekend!