Plains Fire Season + Our Next Severe Weather Chances?

You can tell we're turning the page to early Spring when the fire weather watches start...

Happy early February! Despite what grifting pages online might be spreading, there’s actually not much winter showing up for the southern 1/2 of the U.S. at this point. In fact, there’s a lot more severe weather to talk about.

But first…

1. Fire Season Begins

Any time you enter the warm-up phase of Feb through April with widespread drought, Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings become a near-daily occurrence across much of the Plains. Tomorrow will be no exception.

A critical risk area has been issued because of expected very warm temperatures, strong winds, and extremely dry vegetation. This area will likely see a lot of these in the coming weeks, so this is a good time to remind those who live on the Plains this time of year: don’t burn stuff. Don’t.

Unlike tornadoes, which we can’t control, a large percentage of wildfires on the Plains are caused by humans doing stuff they shouldn’t. So take precautions!

2. The Pattern Has Flipped, Severe Weather Time?

Last night’s GFS made its rounds within pro chaser circles as people looked at the CAPE and shear present for setups both this week and next. Unsurprisingly (it is February), that seemed to be a one-off as today’s runs look a lot less impressive. We’re in a pattern that will support severe weather over the long term.

This week, the pattern offers a slight preview of what Spring might look like, with a deep subtropical jet bringing plenty of moisture to the Plains. Expect snow at higher elevations in the Southwest, but rain for most of the region. Moisture should be limited this week, which will likely keep severe chances at the lower end, if they’re present at all.

Ensembles are pointing to some decent QPF totals, with coverage likely less extensive than the broad brush these types of models provide:

And unfortunately for you winter lovers, we’re only really expecting snow in the highest elevations of New Mexico and Colorado from this system:

There is a possibility of a more favorable pattern for severe storms (and perhaps some wraparound snow for the C Plains) mid to late next week with an even stronger system. Both the GFS and Euro are pretty progressive with this system, which would tend to push much of the interesting stuff further east off of the Plains and into the South. But we’ll be watching it closely!

3. Why Did This Storm Die?

One of the things that has nagged at me since May 18, 2025, has been the sudden demise of the supercell that produced six tornadoes then died near Arnett, OK. After the last tornado, it was super obvious the storm had lost its surface inflow and it was thinning/narrowing quickly. The kicker was though: the environment was going BIG TIME at this point. The cap was not killing this storm. That mystery led to this video...