😮‍💨 Pattern Is Slowing Down…For Now

A ridge will build in, but it won’t completely end severe weather chances.

For the first time in weeks, the pattern will take a pretty sizable break across the Central and Southern Plains, and it will take place next week as a western U.S. ridge of high pressure takes shape.

While patterns like this, with some NW flow and moisture, can lead to severe weather, our tornado numbers in the middle of the country will likely remain lower through the following week. Still, for storm chasers chasecationing out in the middle of the country, there will likely be chances at storms that look pretty with the bigger turning of winds with height.

You can see the ridge centered over the Four Corners region building in by midweek in this model depiction, with strong WNW flow on its NE fringe.

Rainfall totals this week do suggest some storminess and likely at least a low severe weather risk despite the lack of upper support, but the overall tornado threat will be limited due to weak wind shear.

This is a pretty typical sounding for the upcoming week, with weak wind shear (look at how light and variable the winds are with height). There will still be moderate to strong instability many days, so any little bit of lift would result in thunderstorms with at least some severe weather risk, especially from damaging winds given sizable DCAPE values most days.

There is a tendency for models to try to flatten the ridge out with more substantial flow aloft by 6/9 or slightly later. If this happens, a return of tornado chances would be in the offing across even the Southern Plains into Mid June.

With this break, we’ll be taking some time to import the footage and photos from the substantial run of severe storms this past month. Late April into May was pretty historic as we now sit well above average on the national tornado count. It is unlikely we’ll see another run like that this calendar year, meaning the ‘peak’ of the season is very clearly in the rearview.

However, this break is most likely a small one, with the pattern resetting sometime on or just after June 10, with renewed chances of more significant severe weather events over the middle of the country. For this tired storm chaser, I’ll take a short break.

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Judging ‘The Cap’ By Satellite Imagery

As a beginner storm chaser, understanding the subtleties of satellite imagery can dramatically improve your ability to predict and locate severe weather events. This video tutorial focuses specifically on identifying the cap, a critical factor in determining whether a storm will unleash its full potential.