Pattern Change Coming Mid-Late Month

Is it time for a brief but eventful Plains autumn severe weather burst?

We’ve been locked in a pretty June-like pattern for much of the last few weeks in many ways, but we’re looking at a more seasonable transition moving through soon that should bring us at least some low severe weather chances on the Plains.

Where We Are, Where We’re Going

Currently, a ridge of high pressure sits over the Southern Plains, with a stream of rich, tropical moisture from a pair of tropical systems moving over the Southwest. Flooding rains are likely in the coming weekend there.

In fact, with the trough just off the west coast moving inland and a moist and unstable airmass at the surface, some severe storms may be possible in the West this coming weekend, with large hail the primary threat.

With time, the strong ridging over the Southern United States will weaken and shift south and east, finally bringing an end to the sunny/hot pattern with near record high temperatures.