Monsoon Pattern Forecast

How Will the Summer Stack Up?

2026 is likely going to be the warmest year on record on Planet Earth — thanks to a record-breaking El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. When combined with a warmer-than-average Gulf of Mexico, the moisture sources for the 2026 monsoon season are both running a bit hot this year.

The western U.S. receives roughly half of its yearly precipitation from the monsoon pattern, and a warmer-than-typical source of tropical moisture is just what the doctor ordered for drought-stricken regions in the Western U.S.

For the Monsoon, we look for tropical moisture to be carried from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of California over the SW U.S., sometimes also supplemented by Pacific moisture, which will likely be the case this year with a busy tropical season on tap down there.

A high-pressure ridge builds and cycles this moisture around and underneath it daily, with daily storms that lead to heavy rain, flash flooding, and some of the most picturesque stormscapes on planet Earth (sorry, the storm chaser came out in me early today).

What Will This Year Look Like?

Look, here’s the deal, the record-breaking El Niño is creating a few traps in terms of forecaster confidence. I’m certain there’s going to be more moisture than typical around, but who gets how much rain is very much an open question. What I do feel confident in is this: the monsoon season will have a long tail into autumn this year, with a very robust ‘transition season’ pattern along with the classic monsoon pattern.

The Euro weeklies are trending drier over time for July, which is not a surprise: a lot of El Nino year monsoons start late and end late.

However, the Euro is by far and away the driest model, which isn’t typically the case. It’s a brave new world this year or something.

The CFS weeklies are similar in showing a drier eastern CONUS, but the west is much wetter as we move into mid-July. Which leads to lowered confidence short-term with how robust the monsoon pattern will be early.

This is where I tend to just go to the ensembles and #trust.

For July, the NMME is showing positive precip anomalies over many areas in the Southwest, which more closely matches what I’m seeing on current extended/operational models which are showing a monsoonal moisture surge beginning next week.

By August, the vibes look to continue on the NMME with a continued active pattern across the west. I’m not getting too worked up either way, but a slightly above normal signal is probably a sign we’ll see an active pattern throughout the summer months. It may just be not everyone is active all the time.

However, once we get towards the latter part of the classic monsoon season and into fall…things get busy.

Sepetember is showing widespread positive anomalies across the Southwest, which matches with historical trends and my own personal expectations. I think the supercell/severe weather chances this fall will be plentiful in the Southwest actually. The monsoon will be very active at this point.

October isn’t classically known as a monsoon month, but I think it’ll have a lot of those vibes even as the temps cool, thanks to a more active storm track. Again, I suspect many severe weather opportunities, classic monsoons, and, by the end of the month, maybe even mountain snows?

I shouldn’t get excited and call for wetness in an area so frequently marred by drought, but if there’s anything that can snap the SW out of a cyclically long drought, it’s gotta be a record-breaking El Niño. At least that’s what I’m going to keep telling myself…

Monsoon Chasing: Best Time?

I’m timing a lot of my trips to various locations later in the season, with a slight lean towards August/September for a lot of different possibilities.

However, don’t sleep on July. I’m eyeing this first burst as a possible first trip period for a weekend, possibly somewhere a bit more ‘non-traditional’ into the inland parts of the west. We’ll see. I’m excited about the very real likelihood of an enhanced and active monsoon pattern.