Milton is a Disaster Looming Large

Another major hurricane will impact Florida this week + Plains quiet

I have concerns about Florida to be sure.

Milton, as of this morning, is still a tropical storm with 55 mph winds. The track has the storm turning towards the east, with a near-guarantee of landfall on Florida’s coast as a major hurricane.

For Florida, this is literally disastrous news. Yet another major hurricane is taking aim at the state, and things are already dire with the home insurance market there. Another big storm will only compound those issues. On top of the human misery a storm like Milton causes short-term, there could be long-term consequences that are dire for everyday life for residents in the state.

Here is the official forecast cone for Milton as of this morning. And a major reminder: the cone shows all statistically possible/likely center tracks. The actual impacts of the storm are even broader than this. So if you are adjacent to the cone you still need to be watch this storm closely.

What To Expect

Milton will make landfall sometime on Wednesday and cross over the state throughout the day as a hurricane. There will be major wind damage, widespread power outages across the state, and significant flooding.

Given the anticipated scale of the wind field, some areas that do lose power may not regain it for weeks. This will disrupt things into November, most likely across a broad swath of the state. This storm won’t need to reach very high in the Saffir-Simpson scale to cause significant issues for a long time.

Storm surges will also be an issue on the coastline, and depending on where the storm comes ashore, the threat ranges from significant to catastrophic. Be sure to stay tuned.

Back Here in Our Humble Abode

I very seriously considered writing a paragraph full of sleep emojis for this section, but you do come here for education with your forecast, so let’s at least do that.

A large ridge dominates the weather over the Central U.S. though there is a slight sign of some W/NW flow over the Plains on Wednesday (see also Milton making landfall in Florida on the GFS here).

However, in Milton’s wake there will be strongly northerly/offshore flow in the entire Gulf. There is almost no moisture to work with in the middle of the country so any storm threats are limited at best. I’m probably being generous with that langugage even.

The WPC forecast has this next week as one of the driest of the whole year across the country (a lot of places see some of their wettest months in October). The rain/snow in the west is associated with a closed low that’ll take shape towards the end of the workweek. It will deal with limited surface moisture, so I’m not too fired up about too much there.

Overall the forecast us back here on the Plains and Southwest is simple: Mostly dry. Mostly quiet.

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