Who said September weather was dull? NOT ME!
(It’s never dull.)
But first…this is a new space I hope to use every Wednesday to discuss the biggest weather stories, update any needed forecasts, and share science and technology information with you! Many folks in our surveys indicated they want more educational material in the newsletter, and I feel strongly that this is the best way to deliver it. As always, your comments are welcome as we refine this format for future editions.
The Big 3
Hurricane Helene is making its way to the Florida Coast with 12-18 foot storm surges likely. Forecasts currently call for this storm to be a major, category three hurricane as it comes ashore. I do have questions on how far this thing can intensify — and I’d say the intensity forecasts are likely subject to a decent bit of error both ways. As it stands, the official forecast calls for ~130mph winds at landfall.
Did you see this? Yesterday, a massive supercell over the Oklahoma City metro area produced incredible storm structure and giant hail. Baseball-size hail was reported in several areas of the Metro yesterday, with damage to rooftops alone estimated to be as high as $300 million. There were tons of reports of cars damaged and destroyed as well.
Looking ahead, the weather pattern is likely to be quieter with a lot of ridging setting in. This is setting the stage for what NOAA is forecasting to be a warm and dry October for a lot of the country.
The Chase Log
Last weekend, I partook in a chase across Eastern New Mexico, where a supercell thunderstorm was documented near Elida, New Mexico. It wasn’t much, but it was a chase. And…at this stage of the calendar, every chase could be my last for the year. So I’m thankful to have seen this storm spin over largely open fields.
Weather Science Spotlight
What was driving such a destructive storm yesterday in Central Oklahoma?
I pulled a model sounding from the OKC area last night around when the supercell storm formed. The initial environment featured lots of MLCAPE (1500-2000 j/kg), 44 knots of 0-6km shear, and effective SRH values of 174. The small amount of turning in the lower atmosphere mixed with the ample instability in the hail growth zone resulted in an environment very favorable for large hail — you can see several close matches in the analogs box with baseball-sized hail and larger!
Furthermore, the hodograph had a big curved look. This is often associated with the most intense and pretty supercell storm structures!
Titans Toolkit
It is action cam season, and GoPro and DJI are releasing their newest cams. I can’t recommend either just yet since I haven’t tested either. The initial reviews from around the web are that the DJI offers slightly better video quality, but the GoPro has way more flexibility and is revolutionary with its new interchangeable lens system.
If you are interested in supporting us, use one of the links below to purchase:
GoPro Hero 13 ($399)
DJI Osmo Action 5 Pro ($349)