Looking ahead at the rest of May

Will we finish as active as we started?

Phew! That run from the end of April into Early May felt relentless in terms of severe weather threats and tornadoes — even though we thankfully saw the overall number of reports stay on the lower side despite the high-end outlooks issued several days. This entire run has resulted in us entering May above normal for tornadoes on the year for the first time in awhile.

With the mid-late May period being the historically most active period for tornadoes, and the period where many vacationing storm chasers plan their trips, will we see the climatological peak be busy? Read on to find out.

The Pattern Rests

The relentless troughing pattern we’ve grown used to is going to give way to a much more stale pattern over the country, with a low pressure system centered over the western U.S. becoming blocked and lifting north over the coming days. A retrograding low in the Gulf will limit moisture quality over the middle of the country this next week, resulting in a pretty meager environment by May s…