🌪️ Late May Looks Busy

The Plains aren't done yet.

Sometimes, you don’t have to think too deeply about a weather pattern in the extended range. Models are in consensus that we will see SW and W flow across the central U.S. with plentiful moisture and instability around starting this weekend and into the end of the month.

While it’s challenging to pinpoint exact days and locations at this range, it’s clear that the Central and Southern Plains should brace for another active period of severe weather, potentially including tornadoes, starting on 5/18 or 5/19.

This is Not Unusual, But…

This is a robust and consistent signal across most models, ensembles, and individual members of ensembles. As a proponent of climatology, I emphasize that we’re now entering the historically peak period for tornado counts in the United States. 

Therefore, when the calendar reads late May and this general pattern is in place, you can bet on tornadoes happening over the…