Is it Fall Season Time?
Big pattern change coming...
I’m not saying it’s time to grab some pumpkin spice, get your flannel out, and prepare those perfect outfits — but the forecast for the end of August certainly looks enough like Fall that I almost want to call it…Autumn.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, this is the Southern Plains, and it is 2025 — the heat isn’t done just yet.
Probably.
Oh mylanta…look at that 6-10 day temperature outlook from the CPC. Below normal temperatures like this could mean highs in the 60s and low 70s for parts of the Central and Southern Plains this time next week.
Another thing that seems locked in will be some pretty heavy precipitation totals. I’m seeing some models with some pretty significant bullseyes over the next seven days in the Central/Southern U.S.
The NBM is a little less aggressive (it is an average/blend of models after all) — but my guess is there might be some 5-7” rainfall totals this time next week across parts of the Plains.
Severe weather is possible next week, too, though the exact location and days, as well as the actual threats, are uncertain due to small differences in model evolution.
There is a marginal risk for portions of the Central Plains on Sunday, with just enough shear and instability to make me a believer that a rogue supercell could romp around.
Afterwards, a front will dive south into next week and, while I suspect there will be at least marginal risks around this feature, wind shear looks pretty uncertain to be in place as the flow may be displaced behind the front, where widespread precipitation will be ongoing for many days.
My guess is that areas with a thick rain shield/thicker cloud cover may struggle to reach 70°F some days, which would definitely be a Pumpkin Spice warning if I’ve ever seen it.
I’m not fully convinced this is the end of summer, but the overall big-picture pattern certainly supports at least a pretty substantial break in extreme heat for a while. Some models even flip the pattern entirely towards a western trough, which would usher in more robust severe weather setups for the Plains into next month.
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