Hello...Spring? Is that you?
Do I really want to jinx this?
If you look at the extended outlook, Spring certainly looks to be springing as we move through this week into next on the Southern Plains.
But I’m admittedly really worried I’m jinxing this. But let’s get to the forecast.
1. Dry Skies and Possible Record Heat Ahead
It is looking like a very quiet stretch is ahead for the Plains and the Southwest. While that might sound like a relief to some, the underlying pattern tells a more complex story for the next ten days.
Most models show the region remaining dry for much of the next 7-10 days. Not surprising given the northwest flow aloft that should persist.
The primary culprit for our current lack of storms is the “Gulf wipe” we just experienced. Northerly winds pushed all the way down to the Yucatan, effectively scouring out any moisture. As northwest flow continues through the week, that moisture will stay locked away even as our temperatures begin to climb.
Some models are showing incredible warmth for this time of year by this weekend into early next week. We are seeing highs in the 90s in the extended forecast! But this warmth is a double-edged sword. While the sunshine is often welcome, fire danger will rise quite rapidly. We have a combination of low dewpoints, high temperatures, and very dry vegetation that we need to monitor closely.
There are no signs of severe weather in the immediate future. We will keep an eye on the long-range data to see when the next shift occurs.
2. Advanced Severe Weather Forecasting Masterclass
We held a deep-dive live class yesterday covering the intricacies of advanced forecasting. If you want to level up your understanding of how these setups come together, you can watch the full replay here.
3. The Biggest Factor for 2026 Storm Season?
As we look toward the heart of the 2026 storm season, there is one specific factor that is going to play a massive role in how many tornadoes we actually see. Understanding this now will help you set better expectations for the months ahead.