⚠️ First Severe Weather Threat of 2023 🌪️⛈️

Eastern portions of the Southern Plains into the Arklatex are under the gun today.

The first severe weather risk in the middle of the country for 2023 waited a full day to appear: it looks like we’re in for an enhanced threat of a few tornadoes in the region starting this afternoon and lasting into tonight. Additionally, damaging winds and some hail will be possible as well.

Today’s tornado outlook courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center shows an enhanced area of tornado potential from SE OK/NE TX into Arkansas and Louisiana.

Messy Storm Modes: The big takeaway I have from this morning’s model runs is that the storm modes look pretty messy/crowded throughout the day. Storms initially form in the mid-afternoon and expand in coverage and increase in intensity into the evening/night.

• There is enough wind shear present for a few of these storms that can keep clean inflow layers to rotate. More crowded storm modes will limit this threat.

• The tornado risk likely maximizes near and after dark, but it will be on the rise starting by about mid-afternoon.

• There will be two waves …