Enhanced Severe Weather Threat Tomorrow

The risk spans from Nebraska to Oklahoma!

The heart of severe weather season is upon us, and the big risks over the Great Plains look set to really begin in earnest starting with tomorrow.

SPC risk for tomorrow (4/29)

Tomorrow is going to be a very interesting day with a variety of factors that are both for and against a robust severe weather threat.

The things that are favorable include a sharp dryline, an upper level storm system bringing lift and increasing wind shear, and seasonally good surface-layer moisture levels surging northwards. All of these are ingredients we look for when severe weather is on the menu.

There are some factors that might not be as favorable. For starters, there remains a very strong capping inversion over the Great Plains. This layer of warm/dry air aloft is being sent over the surface layer by strong drought and heat in the southwest and has been present much of the season. Tomorrow will be no exception. Additionally, some (but not all) models are pointing to a less than ideal amount of surface moist…