Enhanced Severe Weather Threat on Plains

Northeast Kansas and NW Missouri both look to be in the threat area today.

An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms exists this afternoon and evening for parts of northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. This risk includes the Topeka and Kansas City metro areas. Large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are the main threats. Isolated severe storms are also possible in portions of the Southern Plains, but this risk is very low, and the most likely outcome on the dryline is that no storms will form throughout today.

Location

• Northeastern Kansas

• Northwestern Missouri

• Isolated potential in:

  • South-central/southeastern Kansas

  • East-central Oklahoma

  • Northern Texas

Threats

• Large to very large hail

• Severe thunderstorm gusts

• A few tornadoes (especially early in the event in NE Kansas/NW Missouri)

Timing

• This afternoon into the evening

Discussion

• Upper-Level Driver: A potent upper-level trough moving over the Western U.S. will drive storm development across the Central Plains.

• Ideal Severe Storm Conditions:

  • Strong wind shear at various levels in the atmosphe…