🌪️ Elevated Tornado Risk from New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle

Large hail and a couple of tornadoes possible today.

A compact upper storm system will eject out onto the Southern High Plains today with tons of storms. A few will become supercells in the afternoon with big hail and a tornado or two possible.

We’ll go live on YouTube later today with some LIVE storm chasing!

A compact 500mb trough will move overhead, increasing lift aloft — leading to numerous storms.

Today’s severe weather risk, centered on the Eastern New Mexico region into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains.

Synoptic Overview

A potent mid- to upper-level low pressure system and associated trough are currently progressing eastward across Arizona. A robust 70-knot speed maximum at the 500 millibar level is of particular interest, which is expected to round the base of the trough into central New Mexico by early evening. This setup is classic for generating severe weather in the region.

Rich moisture will stream northwards with SSE surface winds present.

Moisture Content

One key ingredient for severe thunderstorm development is already present: abundant moisture. Recent observations show impressive low-level moisture content that will move north into the target area:

• Del Rio: 18.3 g/kg (lowest 100-MB mean mixing ratio)

• Midland: 14.9 g/kg (lowest 100-MB mean mixing ratio)

• Dewpoints are in the 60s across eastern New Mexico already, with an increase in overall atmospheric moisture apparent.

I generally have a rule that if dews are in the 60s with supercell shear in New Mexico, you chase. It really is that simple.

Low-level winds just off of the surface will be 25-30 knots. Think of 700mb as the 850mb layer on the lower plains. This is sufficient for low-level mesocyclone formation.

Frontal Dynamics

A cold front is on the move and is forecasted to reach northeastern New Mexico and parts of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles by late afternoon to early evening. This front will serve as a focal point for storm initiation and could enhance the severity of any storms that do develop.

This afternoon, I’ll be watching the area south and west of the front where cloud breaks develop.

An area of moderate instability should develop and expand throughout the day from East-Central into Southeast New Mexico.

Instability and Lapse Rates

The atmospheric profile is primed for instability. The cooler air aloft associated with the upper trough will contribute to MLCAPE values from 1000-2000 j/kg. This moderately unstable airmass is undoubtedly good enough for severe weather.

Expect supercells to begin to form as soon as noon in eastern/southeastern New Mexico. Tornadoes will be possible from the very earliest stages of storm formation today.

An in-depth look at today’s environment shows ample 3CAPE and effective SRH values for low-level mesocyclone strengthening. With moderate CAPE and no apparent areas of inhibition, vorticity near the surface will be able to be ingested and converted upwards efficiently. That 83° critical angle is worthy of mention. The idealized near 90° critical angles show up pretty commonly in several models.

Storm Outlook

Given the ingredients at play, we anticipate the following scenario:

• Scattered thunderstorm development, which is the ‘main show,’ should begin in earnest in the early afternoon hours.

• Some of those storms will become supercells.

• Primary threats include:

  • Large hail

  • Severe wind gusts

  • A few tornadoes possible

Going Live Later Today

We will be live FROM THE FIELD with today’s storms. Be sure to tune in on YouTube, use the link below to subscribe and get notified when we go live.