🤔🤨 Blue Skies or Storms Tomorrow?

There is a very low chance of a storm on the dryline from Kansas to Texas tomorrow.

I’m writing this newsletter because I think it is always good practice to talk about when drylines set up but don’t fire robust storms. Tomorrow is one of those days (in all likelihood). If a storm were to fire in Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas it would likely be a pretty tiny storm but might post a hail threat. Let’s dive in quickly.

The first thing I notice is that there looks to be a bit of a weak wave that comes over the dryline earlier in the afternoon (when moisture is still quite low and a cap quite strong). This is the wave likely responsible for the showers/storms in Eastern OK and NE Texas tomorrow on models.

Unfortunately for storm chasers, this wave is leaving a pretty solid bit of sinking air in the mid-levels in its wake along much of the dryline. Sometimes these can be hard to predict or accurately get a sense of, even at this range — but this is probably one of the culprits behind a completely dry QPF signal along the entire dryline on most models.