Active Weather Returns

The dryline re-establishes in the west, but is there enough juice for severe weather?

I’m going to need everyone (including myself) to calm down for a second because the West Coast troughing is BACK!

Usually, this is a strong signal that severe weather is on its way back into the forecast, but a combination of factors will likely keep the threat on the lower end for now.

The troughing is pretty broad with a pretty northerly track of any cores. This results in a weak response at the surface early this week.

Because of that, surface winds, as well as winds just above the surface, don’t respond strongly to pulling the excellent moisture from the south to the north. Still, there is enough energy and convergence to bring storm chances as soon as tomorrow.

This morning, the HRRR showed potential for storms from eastern New Mexico into the Western Texas Panhandle. Due to drier low levels and somewhat weaker wind shear with the glancing upper energy, more multicellular/linear storm modes are likely. Some severe wind gusts are possible.

Evolution Through the Week

The Central and Southern Plains will be on the periphery of some upper-level energy this week with a dryline in place. There will likely be some days with storms and severe weather chances, even low-end se, but nothing screams big-time yet.

As the week goes on, another trough will dig in across the southwest U.S. — this one will have a real shot at bringing some more high-impact weather by next weekend.

With some ridging centered across the Texas coast and northerlies aloft in the gulf, moisture quality won’t be very high with this trough — but the Euro probably has a good handle on it ejecting over the High Plains on Saturday.

At least some severe weather risk will likely be present from Northeast New Mexico into the Panhandles and up into Colorado/Kansas on Saturday. An early look at soundings shows favorable wind shear for supercells but also a tendency for a lot of precipitation. This is one to watch, but I also want to note caution, as I could see this being an old-school fall washout more than a severe weather setup. Still, it bears monitoring.

Pattern Beyond

We talked about the troughing for late September for quite some time, and it’s now here. Beyond this period, there’s a signal for something towards the end of September on the GEFS, with the pattern being a bit less reasonable for severe weather into the first parts of October. On the Euro, it’s pretty bullish on a prominent ridge setting in after Saturday’s trough, bringing summerlike warmth into October for much of the U.S.

In fact, if there is one strong signal for October, it is for a very warm month overall. This may lead to subpar fall colors with later timing for some areas. If there’s a true big-time severe weather event with tornadoes on the Plains coming this fall, it’s more likely than not that you are looking for a period after October 15 for it.

On Another Note…

We’re making a few major changes with this space and all our other spaces. Look for new format(s) and changes in the coming weeks. We’re not going anywhere, but we are evolving. I hope you like what we’re doing with the place!