A Quick Break from Hiatus Here...

Let's just talk very briefly about December

Hey everyone,

I’m taking a quick break from the Titans' end-of-year hiatus to talk a bit about the pattern for the rest of December—if only to prove to folks who missed our note on that that we're still alive.

This Pattern is Boring AF

Drought is the least fun weather story to cover, and this is a pattern that creates big-time drought conditions over the Plains.

While we do have a parade of troughs moving through the middle of the country, they’re occurring on the heels of other ones, which send strong cold fronts south. They’re also fast-moving.

So despite that favorable upper air pattern, we only manage just-in-time moisture below a warm layer of air aloft repeatedly due to poor moisture quality. This pattern has resulted in a drier stretch that will continue for much of the Plains this next week.

Looking beyond the immediate time horizon, the pattern will remain mostly dry for much of the Plains over the next two weeks.

Ensembles are pretty locked in a classic western ridge/eastern trough solution, which is common in La Niña winters and drives drought conditions across the western U.S. and Plains.

Still, after a record-setting November in terms of rainfall (and tornadoes) — the Plains are looking the best they have in a long time. December won’t make this map look too terrible, but if you follow December up with a drier January/February, we may have a different discussion.

So Far, No La Niña

While oceanic temperatures at the equator in the Pacific Ocean have cooled dramatically, we aren’t quite to La Niña officially. Forecasts still call for a weak La Niña to develop this winter. A milder Niña winter doesn’t have as strong of signals for the Spring afterward traditionally, but it can help drive drought conditions on the Plains. However, models and conditions seem mismatched.

A casual glance at the NMME and other climate models suggests a drier winter over the Plains, but a weak La Niña typically doesn’t have this strong of a signal. In that sense, this is a unique winter to see how things turn out.

We’ll See You in January

Barring a significant weather event, this will be our last update for the year on this space. I want to take a moment to thank everyone for a great year here at Tornado Titans. We’ve enjoyed your company, and I can’t wait for what will surely be an incredible 2025 for our team.

We’ve got big goals ahead of us, and I can’t wait to roll out some new products and approaches for 2025. In many ways, it will be the biggest year of change for our brand since the early years.

Be sure to leave a comment if you’d like to let us know what you’d love to see more of in 2025!