Oftentimes as we move into July, storm season continues to crank across the Central and even Southern High Plains. This is especially true in years with some sort of an El Niño pattern ongoing.

And 2023 will be no different at least for this week. It looks like we may have daily rounds of storms off of the Rockies starting on Tuesday or Wednesday with supercells and tornadoes possible each day.

Storms will be possible starting on Tuesday, July 4 across Colorado into NE New Mexico.
The Storm Prediction Center continues with outlined risks for severe weather on Wednesday across the Central and Southern High Plains.
And confidence is already high enough that the folks at SPC have even outlined Thursday for severe weather.

There’s a lot to like about this week:

  • Mid-level jet stream winds will move over a ridge situated across the Southwest U.S. These winds will be more than strong enough to organize storms into supercells.
  • At the surface, dewpoints in the high 50s to mid 60s will exist across the Central and Southern High Plains. These are the dewpoints you need for the memorable supercell and tornado events in this region.
  • The overall parameter space each day moves around and varies, but every single day features conditions I would describe as pretty favorable for severe weather, supercells, and tornadoes.
A snapshot of the jet stream pattern by the middle of the week with broad westerly and northwesterly flow over the Central and Southern High Plains.
And a look at the parameter space with large, looping, elongated hodographs combined with moderate instability.
The dews will slosh around all week with varying areas of focus generally from NE New Mexico into NE Colorado and SE Wyoming. Storms should form up and down the mountains in this region each day, with the greatest severe weather chances moving around depending on the location of jet streaks and moisture tongues.

The Bottom Line

It’s going to be a pretty busy week. Models are pretty consistent with a solid batch of mid-level flow much of the week with good moisture in place. During the summer months, that usually means severe weather for NE New Mexico up through Eastern Wyoming.

We’ll likely be out and about. Storm season never ends.