Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise, days like today are the hardest to forecast because there is already so much ongoing that you really don’t even have a clear picture of what things will look like in four hours, much less eight.

With that said, there’s officially an enhanced threat of severe storms today in North and Central Texas, including for tornadoes — but I think the tornado risk is a highly uncertain risk.

Storms are ongoing across North Texas and will likely reach severe limits this morning.
A look at satellite reveals extensive clouds over much of North Texas, where today’s threat is centered.

What *Probably* Happens

As cold outflow surges south on the tail end of soon to be severe storms in North Texas, I think the target area today gets compressed in time and space pretty fast. I suspect that storms will backbuild along the outflow boundary through the afternoon, with a couple of supercells forming in a crowded fashion just south of it. Those storms would be the ones to watch for tornadoes this afternoon and evening.

The HRRR isn’t fully picking up on current storms, but it does erupt a few supercells by mid-afternoon along and south of I-20.
The initial environment this afternoon is one that is strongly unstable, with adequate wind shear for supercells. The curvature of the hodograph is, well it’s not really curved to start the day. This will favor some storm splitting and giant hail early on.
Hodographs lengthen ever so slightly into the evening hours, and with low LCLs any dominant supercell will certainly be capable of a tornado. However, I think the risk will probably be realized mostly/only with any storm riding a remnant boundary from overnight/morning convection.

Severe Weather is Certain

Let me be clear, especially for all of our peeps in the DFW area — there is going to be severe weather today. There will be giant hail. There will be damaging winds. Irregardless of the tornado threat, severe weather will happen and be plentiful today.

The threat will begin to maximize after 2 p.m. or so local time, but severe weather is possible even as you read this.

Tornado Threat Will Be Conditional

Today is a day that, if it were literally a few hours closer I probably would’ve bit on. I think today is a day where you get a storm that goes absolutely bananas, producing tornado after tornado — or it is a day where few/no tornadoes happen due to storm crowding and progressive outflow.

All things lead to linear/crowded/messy modes by or just after dark.

The Bottom Line

Expect severe weather basically all day today starting in North Texas and extending south and east from there. I also think there could be some isolated severe storms further north and west too — but those will be capable of marginally severe hail only.

Beyond today, Friday may feature enough moisture ahead of a crashing front for a few severe storms. Otherwise, it looks like a see you next week type of situation!