Are we about to enter an active pattern?

The turn of the month has an interesting look!

We talked about it in our last newsletter, but we might finally be getting that potential flow + moisture link-up we’ve been waiting for in late May. Right now it appears that we’ll see this come in two phases.

Early Next Week

After the front moving through the Southern Plains today clears out and moisture returns north, we should see at least 2-3 days of severe weather risks develop next Monday to possibly Wednesday from eastern New Mexico into southern Texas.

Model depiction of atmospheric winds and instability on Monday.

It seems likely that we’ll have a risk of supercells in reasonable chase terrain from Monday to Tuesday at least, and possibly into Wednesday if the front depicted on models is slower to slide south. We’re watching this period closely for a threat of big hail and a few tornadoes next week if things can materialize.

Next Weekend Into June

Global models pull moisture north by next Friday over the Plains as the upper level flow turns from WNW to WSW. The question is the s…