The weather models are in consensus: our previously highly amplified patterns are settling into a steady, zonal flow across the country. This is likely to result in milder weather for the Plains, along with a notable temperature difference between the north and south. This calm trend is expected to continue until late next week. If this holds true, we’ll have navigated a significant portion of the fall season on the Plains with minimal severe weather risks.

However, keep in mind that the Gulf’s temperature remains unusually warm. This suggests that should sustained low-pressure troughs develop in the west, we may experience a severe weather event in late fall or early winter, possibly in November or December. Right now, this isn’t an immediate concern.