Weather models are showing a compact shortwave trough moving across the Southern Plains from Sunday Night into Monday, which could lead to our first bout of wintry precipitation. However, I remain somewhat skeptical of model output of snow right now because temps ahead of the shortwave will actually be pretty warm. Let’s break it down.
Reality Check: The simple fact is, details this fine and this marginal are way too difficult to pin down at this range. In my experience, systems typically trend down with time on snowfall amounts/precipitation intensity from this point into the event.
- Regardless one notable thing that is not showing up is a warm nose aloft. Due to the nature of this system it is highly likely you will have either rain or snow, freezing rain and sleet will not be a problem most likely.
The bottom line: Expect *some* precipitation somewhere on the Southern Plains on Monday. This does not mean snow, and the exact track with such a small system will likely be in flux all the way to Sunday morning.
- Still, there are enough signs to warrant us keeping a close eye on this just in case the more aggressive model solutions of today somehow pan out.
- I wouldn’t be rushing out to buy bread and milk (why do people do this?) — but I would certainly pay attention over the weekend for any changes in official forecasts.