There is going to be a risk of severe storms with tornadoes possible tomorrow across Southeast Texas. There are a lot of uncertainties with the forecast, mainly storm mode and the degree of instability — but we could see a threat evolve into the early afternoon in the shaded areas in the top-left graphic.

What: Tornadoes are possible with supercells.

Where: Southeast Texas.

When: Late tomorrow morning into the afternoon.

Discussion: A bit of upper energy will move out of the southwest and into Texas during the day tomorrow. In response, moisture and wind fields will increase, leading to rising instability and wind shear. With little to no capping, storms will most likely go in many places at once as the energy arrives.

This leads to the uncertainty with tomorrow’s forecast. As you can see in the two bottom graphics, storm mode looks crowded. Still, models are producing some updraft helicity in some cells at noon – 3 p.m.. Given the extremely low cloud bases and the strong low-level wind shear, this might be enough to spin up tornadoes.

Overall, I think the risk is highly conditional but could be enhanced locally if a dominant supercell can thrive. This depends on developing low-level instability before storms fire in the late morning. We’ll certainly be watching this and will have an update later today or tomorrow morning on where things likely stand.