Today and tonight, scattered strong to severe storms are expected across east/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana, with large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms may occur across the central and southern High Plains into central Texas, as well as the upper Great Lakes region.

Locations:

  • Primary Risk Area: East/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana.
  • Secondary Risk Areas: Central and southern High Plains into central Texas, and the upper Great Lakes region.

Threats:

  • Large Hail: Particularly across east/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana, with possible hail storms in the upper Great Lakes region and High Plains.
  • Damaging Winds: Locally strong winds associated with the most intense storm cells.
  • Tornadoes: A couple of tornadoes are possible, especially near and south of the northward-shifting front in Texas and Louisiana.

Timing:

  • Peak Storm Development: This afternoon into tonight. Elevated showers and thunderstorms this morning may intensify into the afternoon, with severe potential increasing particularly near the northward-moving front.

Discussion:

  • Central/east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley:
    • Morning: Elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing, with the potential for some to become supercellular given moderate buoyancy and strong shear.
    • Afternoon: Enhanced heating and destabilization near the shifting front could trigger surface-based storms, potentially evolving into supercells capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes.
    • Evening: Clusters of storms may propagate forward across southeast Texas into Louisiana, maintaining a severe risk into the night.
  • Texas Edwards Plateau/Low Rolling Plains and High Plains:
    • Western Kansas: Greater storm coverage expected, supported by cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates conducive to hail.
    • Texas South Plains to Concho Valley: Potential for isolated supercell development later in the day, depending on cloud dispersal and sufficient heating. Large hail and gusty winds are the main concerns.

Technical Discussion

For storm chasing I’m most intrigued by the dryline from SW Kansas into the Texas South Plains. But I’m worried that the persistence of ongoing storms into the afternoon will feed cool outflow west, enhancing low clouds and decreasing storm coverage.
There remains a weak signal for a couple of storms to form out west on the dryline. But most models don’t sustain or grow these very substantially through the afternoon and evening. I agree the greatest risk looks like it’ll be in the Pine forests of SE Texas and W Louisiana.