Both October 10 and October 12 saw big severe weather risks introduced over the Great Plains. On both days, the possibility of long-tracked, strong tornadoes was discussed and on both days that threat largely failed to materialize (at least in the highest outlook areas!).
I personally didn’t chase either day — though I don’t fault anyone for chasing — the setups didn’t look like ones that’d be worth the 8-hour drive either day for me. I should say with that statement that I tend to not storm chase at night on purpose because I’m really not a big fan of it personally.
I saw three things that kept me at home.
First, I didn’t like the projected storm modes in the primary target either day.
Second, the thermodynamics on Tuesday did not look favorable at all in the primary target with a significant near-surface stable layer forecast on models (and later verified on soundings). There was a secondary target that became apparent on Tuesday morning but storms largely did not organize sufficiently to produce tornadoes until well after dark.
Third, for Sunday, advancing cold fronts are just a no-go for me. I talk about it more in the video but what happens with cold front storms typically also happened on Sunday.
Be sure to check out the video for helpful tips and hints on how to assess potential big-time severe weather events ahead of time on the plains!
1:20-2:56 SPC Outlooks are not chase outlooks
2:56-5:37 Storm mode concerns
5:37-10:29 Shear vectors and storm mode
10:29-18:49 Thermodynamics of nocturnal tornado events on the Plains
18:49-21:27 Avoiding advancing cold fronts
21:27-24:09 The recipe for big tornado days on the C/S Plains
Please do more, yes!?
Interesting. I chased both events. I drove 15+ hours to do it and don't regret it. Glad you agree that chasing either of these events had some potential, perhaps, not the major outbreak. But, then again, I was happy with singular events. As a fairly new plains chaser, I normally chase the Arizona/New Mexico Monsoons, I like to hear these interpretations to point out things that I didn't consider. Thank you.
Solid video, thanks for sharing.
Absolutely love these vids!
Very informative video!
Love how you learned all the complicated stuff, and slowed it down enough for me to understand you. Most people just blow me out of the water.
Loved this event post mortem for those days. I'm always trying to learn why an even performed the way it did, and videos like this make it super helpful. Thanks for putting this out!
I really like these. It helps me understand how to read the models better and understand more what I should be looking for, especially since I’ve basically been training myself on understanding them.
Great video Raychel. I also did not chase either event. I thought linear storm mode and after dark. Curious of your thoughts where you would have positioned yourself on Tuesday? SW of Altus or ??? Regards, DB.
Seems like slight risk days over perform and anything higher than that either underperform or bust:
Hello I'm from Brazil, I love your videos, keep doing tutorials, congratulations on the content….