After last week’s very active run, this week promises to be much tamer through at least Thursday before we start considering the possibility of severe weather again by the weekend.
The only day we for sure have a risk of severe weather on the Central/Southern Plains is Tuesday. Some moisture will be hanging around the Southern High Plains and upslope flow off the mountains of New Mexico should help widespread storms get going.
The Jet Stream Goes Away Otherwise
We are starting this week with very weak flow on the Southern Branch of the jet stream, with N/NW flow over the eastern and northern parts of the Plains. A trough is coming ashore out west, and some big rain totals are possible out there, but that won’t become a player in the middle of the country for several days.
The Change Into the Weekend
We will start to see the pattern change by quite a bit into the weekend, with troughing beginning to dig south and east into the Desert Southwest.
The Bottom Line
We know for sure there won’t be much to write home about the next few days. Confidence decreases markedly by the weekend, but I do suspect we’ll see a return of severe weather risks.
Depending on how the troughing behaves to the west, we could see a string of severe weather setups over the Central/Southern High Plains this weekend into early next week.
This isn’t a mega fall pattern, but I do suspect this is beginning the move into something that might result in a very notable day later this month. Stay tuned.
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