A storm system will eject out onto the Plains and into the South from Wednesday to Friday — with the initial day to watch being Thursday, depending on your model of choice. There is quite a lot of variability in model solutions for this system. The Euro is further south; the GFS is more robust/more progressive/slightly more north with the low. 

Given that we are 81 hours out, the differences are enough that it’s hard to pin down an exact threat area/what is possible. The GFS verbatim would give the Southern High Plains a pretty solid winter storm and the south a threat of severe weather. Still, I’m not feeling confident in any one solution right now.

A blend results in something along the lines of a mismatched severe weather threat, where the best instability is south and dynamics are north, and a solid winter event across eastern New Mexico, possibly into the Panhandles. For the south, you’d then see a pretty general SW type of flow with a heavy rain threat materializing over several days — but limited dynamics would keep the severe weather threat low.

Still, we’ll keep an eye on things in case they come together.