Weather News and Opinion

Oklahoma Panhandle to Kansas: A Tornado or Two Possible

Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Mid Missouri Valley, Central Plains, and Southern High Plains. Main threats include large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Locations:  Slight Risk Areas: Upper Mississippi Valley, Mid Missouri Valley, Central Plains, Southern High Plains Threats: Damaging Winds: Strong winds…

Central Plains Severe Risk Today

Scattered strong to severe storms are expected today mainly across the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Central/Northern Plains. Damaging winds and large hail are possible. Locations: Primary Risk Area: Northern/Central Plains Secondary Risk Area: Southern High Plains. Threats: Damaging Winds: Primarily across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern/Central Plains. Large Hail: Likely in the Central High…

A Couple Severe Storms Today

The coverage of storms along the dryline today is an open question. But any storms that can form and strengthen will have the capability of damaging winds and some large hail. Wind shear is weaker than yesterday, so the odds of supercells today is lower, but instability is sufficient to power a few storms. This…

This Ridge of High Pressure Is Shifting East And the Jet Stream North

A ridge of high pressure is shifting east through the week, which is going to bring extremely hot temperatures from New England down into the Southern Plains. This ridge will also help the jet stream shift north and tilt. However, a cold front midway through the week may limit severe weather chances to the hotter…

Border to Border Severe Weather Risks Today

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from late afternoon into the evening across the mid-Missouri Valley and from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great…

What Does The End of El Niño Mean For The Central U.S.?

The El Niño swing to La Niña is now fully in effect, with the official end of El Niño declared by NOAA today. But what does this mean for weather impacts in Tornado Alley and beyond? In our seasonal forecast, we noted that swinging El Niños (those rapidly weakening to La Niña) had a high…

Severe Weather Risk in Plains Today

Severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas down to the Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening. Drier low-levels mixed with weaker wind shear will make the primary threats damaging winds and perhaps some marginally severe hail. Locations: Enhanced Risk Area: Northern Missouri, southern Iowa, and northern Illinois. Plains Risk Area: Kansas down into the Texas Panhandle…

Some Severe Storms in Texas Today

Damaging winds and large hail are possible as a storm complex moves south and east through the day, with trailing outflow to its west creating new storms. Wind shear is pretty weak underneath a ridge, so storms will struggle to organize today across Texas to much more than transient multicell clusters and single cell pulse…

Scattered Severe Storms Around Today

Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the Southeast where hail and wind are possible. Locations: Risk Areas: Parts of GA/SC, the northern Plains, and the southern Plains. Threats: Large Hail: Potential…

Today Resembles a Strong Monsoon Day

We have a risk of severe storms today, though admittedly, the atmosphere really isn’t that primed for much more than some damaging winds and perhaps some marginally severe hail. Storms will form across the Southern/Central High Plains, but there is very little wind shear, so they’ll be rather unorganized and resemble a monsoon-like storm day….

This Week is Classic Low-Key June

If you asked me to draw up what I thought a low-key but active June storm pattern was like on average, I think I’d draw up something similar to this week. Early in the week, NW flow will dominate over the high plains with a building ridge to the south. By late week, a compact…

Line With Damaging Winds in CO/KS Today, Supercells in MO

Storms will form in an environment characterized by high cloud bases and strong downdraft CAPE today, which will generate near instant cold pools and cell mergers. This will create a linear complex which will march from NE Colorado down to SC Kansas and perhaps even Oklahoma. Locations: Primary Risk Area: Eastern Colorado and western Kansas…

Supercells Likely This Afternoon in Nebraska

Rapid thunderstorm development, including one or two intensifying supercells, is likely between 2-4 PM CDT. Expect large hail (over 2 inches), strong gusts, and possible tornadoes. Current Conditions: Rapid destabilization and weakening inhibition due to increasing low-level moisture and warm temperatures. Trigger: Weak perturbations and strong deep-layer lift are supporting high-based convective development. Expected Development:…

Southern Plains Wind Bags Today

Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph are possible this afternoon/evening across western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. There is a small risk of a supercell with large hail as well. However, ridging aloft along with a dry subcloud layer will likely mean most storms are shorter lived and outflow dominant, much more reminiscent of summer/monsoon…

Today Is the First Day in Awhile With No Tornado Risk on the Plains

Don’t adjust those computer monitors, your phone is working too — there is indeed no outlined tornado risk in the middle of the country today. In fact, there isn’t even a risk of general thunderstorms across much of the middle of the  country today. This break in tornado risks may last a bit, as tomorrow’s…

How To Chase A Ridge

No, I haven’t lost my marbles; you can chase during a building ridge of high pressure over the middle of the country. There are several places where severe storms are often favored as prominent ridges build in during the summertime months over the middle of the country. One example of this occurs this weekend, as…

Low Tornado Risk in Central Oklahoma Today

A small slice of Central Oklahoma will have a few storms today with a low tornado risk. While wind shear isnt particularly strong, a few ambient boundaries over the state will bring a small risk of tornadoes along with an enhanced threat of hail and damaging winds. Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across central and…

Welcome to Summer

Yesterday’s “failure to launch” of severe storms was the first sign of a strong ridge beginning to plant itself over the southern U.S. Within the next 48 hours, winds aloft should weaken substantially. A lot of the Plains will still have some flow and moisture around to keep severe storm chances going, but the vibes…

A Couple of Tornadoes Possible Today

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and Southern Plains. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may develop across southwest and southern Oklahoma this evening into early tonight. Locations: Slight Risk Area: Oklahoma, north Texas, eastward to the Ark-La-Miss Threats: Large Hail: Up…

Big Ridge Building in This Week

For the first time in weeks, the pattern will take a pretty sizable break across the Central and Southern Plains, and it will take place next week as a western U.S. ridge of high pressure takes shape. While patterns like this, with some NW flow and moisture, can lead to severe weather, our tornado numbers…

A Final Tornado Risk on the Southern Plains?

A prominent ridge will begin building in after today, bringing a downward slide to our major severe weather chances for awhile — though risks will remain. Still, with weak flow aloft coming, tornado risks will likely be very low to just about zero for awhile. That said, today, we have one last tornado risk to…

High Plains Severe Weather Threat

Scattered strong storms with severe hail and wind are likely across the Northern and Central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated large hail is also possible in southwest Texas. Locations: Slight Risk Area: Northern/Central High Plains and Southwest Texas Threats: Severe Hail and Wind: Northern/Central High Plains Large Hail: Southwest Texas Timing: Storm Initiation:…

What Happens Next Is A Mystery

A surging boundary, driven by an ongoing storm complex which produced damaging winds in DFW this morning, will be the key today. How far south this boundary stalls, if it even stalls, will be key to what type of severe storms and where today. We will see new development to the west/south into this afternoon…

The Tornado Risk Is Not Over: A Look At This Week

This week probably won’t feature as many destructive tornadoes as last week, which is good news for everyone. However, the risk of tornadoes will continue, with an active subtropical jet giving us plenty of chances of severe storms throughout the week. The biggest threat days are Tuesday and Thursday, with risks every day this week…

Severe Weather to Threaten Northeast/Southern Plains!

Severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, southwest Oklahoma, and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. Locations: Primary Risk Areas: Much of the Atlantic Seaboard and north/central Texas. Threats: Damaging Winds: Expected across the…

Tornado Watches and Warnings Out For Parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas

A Tornado Watch is out currently until at least 9PMCST for parts of Texas and a Potentially Dangerous Situation Watch is out for portions of Southcentral Kansas Western and Central Oklahoma and Extreme Northcentral Texas until at least 11:00PMCST. There has been a funnel cloud spotted Northwest of Elbert and a Rotating Wall Cloud was…

Significant Severe Weather Risk Today

It’s going to be a busy day, but there are a lot of caveats in place from Kansas to Texas. The environment today is extremely favorable for strong to violent tornadoes, but storm mode could make the threat more limited in space and time. Still, vigilance is required today as the environment is on the…

High Risk Coming Tomorrow?

It is understandable to be skeptical after strong/violent tornadoes didn’t materialize over a wide area on May 6 this year, but that day did feature dozens of tornadoes across the Southern/Central Plains. This time around, I can’t stress this enough, I can’t find much wrong with tomorrow other than the fact storms may not be…

Mega Hail Possible Today

Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, eastern Oklahoma, and north-central/central Texas today. Primary threats include severe wind gusts, large hail, and a low tornado chance. Locations: Primary Risk Area: Eastern Iowa and northern Illinois (morning), Eastern Oklahoma and north-central/central Texas (afternoon to evening) Secondary Risk Area: Central Texas Threats: Severe…

It’s Another Severe Weather Day on the Plains

Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Plains today, with the greatest threat over Nebraska and western Iowa this evening into tonight. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Locations: Primary Risk Area: Nebraska and western Iowa Secondary Risk Area: Western Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle into SW Texas Threats:…

Severe Storms from Michigan to Texas Today!

Severe thunderstorms, including several tornadoes, are expected this afternoon to early evening, primarily across Iowa and adjacent parts of southeastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Missouri. Further south, more severe storms will be possible with hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.  Locations: Primary Risk Area: Much of Iowa and nearby parts of southeastern Minnesota,…

Another Enhanced Threat Today

Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of northeastern Colorado, central/southwestern Nebraska, and northwestern Kansas. The main threats include large to very large hail, severe gusts (some 75 mph or greater), and a few tornadoes. Locations: Enhanced Risk Area: Northeastern Colorado, central/southwestern Nebraska, northwestern Kansas Threats: Large to Very Large Hail: Especially with sustained supercells. Severe…

Significant Threat of Severe Weather Today

Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Kansas into northwest Oklahoma from late afternoon into mid-evening, with potential for a derecho. Destructive wind swaths of 80-100 mph may occur, with localized extreme gusts exceeding 100 mph possible. Huge hail and a few tornadoes are also anticipated. Locations: Primary Risk Area: Southwest to Central Kansas Secondary…

An Isolated Supercell Tomorrow is Likely to Be Photogenic

One thing I’ve been carefully monitoring for tomorrow is the possibility of a supercell or two from S. KS into W. Oklahoma being especially photogenic with the classic stacked plates/mothership structure. The drier low level environment will lead to higher cloud bases through much of the day, but I suspect as the low-level jet increases…

Hail, damaging winds possible tomorrow

Severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of Kansas tomorrow afternoon and evening. Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Locations: Enhanced Risk Area: Western and central Kansas Secondary Risk Area: Dryline down into Oklahoma. Threats: Large Hail: Particularly during the initial hours of storm development. Damaging Wind Gusts:…

Sunday: Severe Risk Across Wide Area

Sunday will likely be a busy day of severe weather, with storms expected across a wide swath of area, but the tornado risk for this day will likely depend on what happens in the conditional risk area. Primary Risk Area: Storms will almost certainly form here in the afternoon but with high cloud bases contributing…

Two Final Days of Rest

We are approaching what may be a marathon chase session starting on Sunday. A small amount of high pressure ridging will give way to storm systems that should continue through much of the next week. Each day’s risks will be different and locations variable, but it is likely several areas will see multiple days of…

Late May Looks Busy

Sometimes, you don’t have to think too deeply about a weather pattern in the extended range. Models are in consensus that we will see SW and W flow across the central U.S. with plentiful moisture and instability around starting this weekend and into the end of the month. While it’s challenging to pinpoint exact days…

Damaging Winds and Large Hail in Texas Today

Severe thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern Texas into southwest Louisiana today, with potential for large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado. An organized cluster of storms may evolve, enhancing the risk for damaging wind gusts. Locations: Primary Risk Area: Central and eastern Texas to southwest Louisiana. Threats: Large Hail: Initial storms may produce…

Enhanced Severe Weather Risk Today

Severe thunderstorms are anticipated across the Southern Plains today, bringing the risk of severe wind gusts, large hail, and potential tornadoes. Locations: Primary Risk Area: Southern Plains from the Texas Panhandle into the Northwest 1/2 of Oklahoma. Secondary Risk Area: Down the dryline in West Texas and in a post-frontal regime across portions of New…

TOMORROW: Wind Machines on the Plains

Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast for Wednesday into Wednesday evening across the Southern Great Plains, particularly from the Texas Panhandle to southeast Kansas. Hail and damaging winds are the main threats, with a very low tornado risk also apparent across portions of Oklahoma. Locations: Slight Risk Area: Texas Panhandle to southeast Kansas. Threats: Large Hail:…

Tornado Season Has Been Active, Will it Continue?

Our last video on the state of the season talked about how the season was about to shift into high gear. Now, let’s talk about what comes next… I was pretty reasonably confident in the last video because it was very apparent the season was about to become intense. Going forward, my confidence is lower…

High-Based Wind Machines on Wednesday

Looking ahead, our brief lull from more significant severe weather events should continue at least through Wednesday — though a few storms could reach severe limits with damaging winds and some hail. A potentially more potent environment will be in place on Thursday, but there are significant model discrepancies even at this range to deal…

Widespread Area of Severe Weather Today

Today and tonight, scattered strong to severe storms are expected across east/southeast Texas to western and central Louisiana, with large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms may occur across the central and southern High Plains into central Texas, as well as the upper Great Lakes…

Finally a Quiet Day

There’s nothing to jinx here, the pattern today is going to be quiet with cool/dry air filtering into the region. Severe weather chances may return (albeit very marginal) tomorrow and especially Sunday. Everything looks lower end generally though. We don’t expect much else through about Wednesday. The pattern should pick up again starting then, but…

Big Hail Likely in Texas Today

An enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms is expected today from Central Texas to parts of the Georgia/South Carolina coast. Central Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, is particularly vulnerable to very large hail, potentially exceeding 3 inches in diameter, as well as damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Locations: Enhanced Risk Area: Central Texas to…

Severe Weather Threat Increasing Across Northwest Oklahoma

Initial Supercell development across Northwest Oklahoma has begun which will bring large to very large hail. Two funnel clouds have just been reported Southeast of Leedey. The tornado threat will increase rapidly as we move toward the 6:00PM hour. This is a watch known as a particularly dangerous situation, meaning that strong tornadoes are expected…

Significant Tornado Outbreak Expected

Just like we mentioned yesterday, if we ever say the words in the headline above know we don’t do that often. I know some groups out there say these words a lot, but this is a case when it really is true. Today is going to be a long day. An intense regional outbreak of…

Tomorrow Could Be the Real Deal

If you’ve followed us a long time, you know we are oftentimes the people who proudly anti-hype up some setups because there are a lot of accounts out there that really go overboard when it comes to severe weather risks. So I hope with that in mind, this lands a bit stronger than it would…

Tornado Threat in West Texas!

Severe thunderstorms are anticipated across parts of the Southern High Plains into the Hill Country of Central Texas this afternoon and evening. The enhanced risk area, particularly over portions of West Texas and extreme southeastern New Mexico, could see very large hail and a couple of tornadoes. Locations: Primary Focus: Portions of West Texas and…

West Texas Tornado Risk Today

It seems like every day brings a new low-end risk of a tornado right now, and today is no different. While we don’t expect a lot of tornadoes, one or two could form and bring localized impacts again today. Severe thunderstorms are likely today from southern Nebraska to West Texas, with the greatest potential for…

Big Hail Today

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains. The greatest potential for severe weather, including large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a couple of tornadoes, is over parts of northwest, north-central, and central Texas. Locations: Primary Focus: Northwest, north-central, and central Texas. Threats: Large to Very…

Enhanced Threat of Severe Weather Today

An enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast for western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle, and northwest/west-central Texas today. The primary threats include large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes. Locations: Primary Focus: Western Oklahoma, eastern Texas Panhandle, and northwest/west-central Texas. Threats: Large to Very Large Hail: Hail sizes may…