Weather News and Opinion

Big Hail Possible From Illinois to Texas Tomorrow!

Severe storms will form along a cold front from Illinois to Texas, with big hail being a primary threat in Arkansas,Oklahoma, and Texas. The cold front’s position and the timing of storm development are the big questions for tomorrow. Some models are producing storms very near DFW, which would be a pretty big deal if…

Severe Weather Possible With an Evening Tornado Threat

Severe weather will be possible today from southern South Dakota to Texas. Storm coverage will be highest in the northern and southern ends of the risk area, with the middle portions having few or no storms before sunset. After dark, lift increases, and storms should become more numerous across the risk area. A couple of…

Severe Weather Tomorrow, Let’s Break it Down

An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms exists across portions of Nebraska, Kansas, western Oklahoma, and western North Texas. Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely. Locations: Nebraska Kansas Western Oklahoma Western North Texas Threats: Large to very large hail Damaging wind gusts A few tornadoes Timing: Monday from the afternoon well into the overnight hours. Discussion Weather…

Enhanced Threat of Storms Tomorrow, But…

As we look towards tomorrow, there is an enhanced risk (3/5) outlined from Western Oklahoma to NW Texas. A cursory glance at weather models this morning actually say that enhanced area may be storm free throughout the event, with the best chances of storm development just north and south of the enhanced risk zone. If…

Model Watch: 48 Hours Out Edition

We just hit the 48-hour window for Monday’s event, which means we have a treasure trove of data to work through. Here is where things stand: Almost every model does not form storms until sunset on Monday, some much later than that. This is due to the delayed wave timing we’ve talked about a couple…

Let’s Check In With Monday

We’re now less than 60 hours away from Monday’s potential severe weather event. Here are some quick notes on where things stand: The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk for Monday. This is a good and solid risk outline at this point that runs from Kansas to Texas. Right now the biggest threats inside…

Do You Need to Trim Your Info Intake?

One of the most important things we can do, apart from educating you all on storms and how they form/behave, is to give information that is high quality, accurate to the data, and balanced. We have always had as part of our public mission to capture incredible and say very loudly that weather is for…

Here Are Some Things To Watch This Wekeend For Monday’s Threat

There will be much talk about Monday’s severe weather threat over the weekend, and for good reason: there is a lot of potential. But, at the same time, truly big days are pretty rare! As we move through the weekend, here are some of the questions that need resolving for Monday to reach big-time status:…

Significant Severe Weather Episode on Monday?

All the talk next week is on Monday. That make sense because the Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting portions of the Southern Plains for a significant severe weather risk. While we want to stress details can certainly change at this range, there is a lot of model agreement across suites and ensembles of an environment…

It’s Going to Severe Weather Till’ It Can’t No More

An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms exists for portions of northwest and north-central Texas. Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from mid-afternoon through tonight, with the severe weather risks lasting all night and into tomorrow. The main threat is large to giant hail, with a few tornadoes and severe wind gusts also…

Here are Clouds in Reality vs. An Aggresive Model

Here is an image showing the coverage of clouds in reality vs. what a model that has been predicting widespread cloud cover for the eclipse had prognosticated for this afternoon. As you can see, the end result is close, but clouds aren’t as thick as forecast in many areas and slightly less widespread than models…

Enhanced Severe Weather Threat Tomorrow

An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms exists for portions of northwestern Texas into extreme southwestern Oklahoma. Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning. The main threat is large to very large hail, though isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts remain possible. Locations Northwestern Texas Extreme southwestern…

Eclipse Cloud Watch (Morning Before Edition)

We are now close enough to a pretty clear forecast of where clouds are going to heavily impact eclipse viewing. The short version: models have come around to an extensive clouds across much of the country scenario. Texas is basically a no-go if you can flex around. There is a chance of cloud breaks in…

Extremely Critical Fire Weather Today in Panhandles/SW Kansas

A classic High Plains extremely critical fire weather risk is in place today from Southwest Kansas/SE Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Temperatures have warmed into the 70s with cratering dewpoints and strong SW winds. This is leading to very high end fire weather risks in this region. If a fire were to start, rapid spread…

A Few Severe Storms Today on the Plains

A low risk of severe thunderstorms will exist this afternoon and early evening from Nebraska to Oklahoma. A powerful storm system will move east out onto the Plains with tons of associated lift. Storms should form from north to south through the afternoon. Locations: Southwestern and southern Nebraska Central and eastern Kansas Eastern Oklahoma Threats:…

Severe Weather Risk Tomorrow

A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms exists Saturday across portions of the Central and Southern Plains, primarily in western Nebraska, central and eastern Kansas, and eastern Oklahoma. Threats: Locally damaging winds Hail (mainly 1 to 1.5 inches) Very low tornado risk. Locations: Western Nebraska Central and eastern Kansas Eastern Oklahoma Timing: Saturday afternoon and evening…

Eclipse Forecast Improving With Better Data

Data continues to roll in that is higher in resolution, a trend that will continue through the next 48 hours or so. As it stands right now, the overall look of cloud cover conditions is improving for many areas of the country as model resolution is able to define potential areas of clouds better. Texas…

Here Is The Latest on Clouds For Monday’s Eclipse

We’re digesting all of the latest data and will have a video out tonight or tomorrow for our official forecast. We’re now getting close enough we can start really taking data serious. The best viewing conditions look to be SE MO into Indiana. This area offers the best guarantee of clear viewing, though there doesn’t…

A Strongly Forced Line of Storms in Kansas on Saturday?

Just a quick update on what chase chances look like this weekend. It is well-documented that this weekend’s system will be pretty moisture-starved, but it will also be very dynamic. A powerful storm system will bring overwhelming lift along an advancing Pacific front across portions of Kansas and Nebraska this weekend, along with solid deep-layer…

Severe Storms On Saturday?

Moisture isn’t going to be high-quality on Saturday, but there will probably be just enough instability mixed with moderate wind shear to get a severe storm or two off of the dryline. An upper-level storm system will be moving east over the Plains, bringing with it just enough of everything to get storms going. The…

Our Next Chance At Storm Chasing is Saturday

You know it is the spring storm chase season because the next storm chase is almost always in sight at this time of year. Right now, it looks like a powerful storm system will slam into the Plains on Saturday, bringing a chance of severe weather. There are plenty of questions about this setup, most…

Big Severe Risk in the Midwest Today

The system that spawned severe weather over the Plains yesterday, including a few tornadoes mostly after dark, is on the move to the east. A big severe risk is outlined for portions of the Midwest. The SPC’s significant level 4/5 risk includes the risk of strong tornadoes today. Models paint a picture of a lot…

Significant Large Hail Threat Today

There’s a significant threat of large hail today, especially across portions of Eastern Oklahoma and adjacent areas of Texas, Kansas, Arkansas, and Missouri. Hail up to baseball and softball size seems a near certainty today. Additionally a damaging winds threat and a low tornado threat will exist. Locations Southern Plains: Texas, Oklahoma, portions of Kansas…

What Is the Data Saying About Clouds and the Eclipse?

We’re now beginning to get close enough that we need to start taking weather models a little more seriously (but not literally) about cloud cover and locations. We’re far enough out that things could still change some, but the background environment we’re going to be dealing with is pretty evident at this point. The pic…

Giant Hail, Risk of Tornadoes Tomorrow

An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms exists Monday and Monday night across portions of the Southern and Central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. All severe weather hazards, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, are possible. Here’s what you need to know: Locations Southern Plains (Texas, Oklahoma, portions of Kansas) Central Plains (portions of Kansas,…

Giant Hail Possible Monday in OK/KS (April 1, 2024 Outlook)

While the environment doesn’t look as primed for tornadoes (as of right now) for Monday, I can tell you it looks like an environment ripe for absolutely gargantuan hailstones. Days like Monday are a throwback to a simpler time in storm chasing when you could expect all setups before April 20 or so to be…

It’s Pretty Clear Monday Will Be Busy

An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms exists on Monday and Monday night across portions of the Southern and Central Plains northeastward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. All severe hazards are possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The severe threat may extend into parts of the Ohio Valley Monday night. Locations Southern Plains (Texas, Oklahoma,…

A Look At NOAA’s Spring Precipitation Outlook

NOAA’s Spring Outlook shows better-than-average chances of increased precipitation across the Southern U.S. and then arcing back into the Southern and Central Plains. In most years, more precipitation than normal in these areas would tend to indicate a busier severe weather season as well. Last week, the Climate Prediction Center released its April, May, and…

There Will Be Plenty of Severe Weather Monday

The Storm Prediction Center has Monday outlined for a severe weather risk, with a 30% outline put onto Day 4. This all but guarantees at least an enhanced risk (3/5) by Monday. Threats: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and areas eastward face large hail from supercells, plus a tornado and wind damage risk. The tornado risk will…

Early Signs For Sunday: Cap Monster

The first day to watch for any severe weather potential whatsoever from this upcoming system will be on Sunday. Cap City: The capping inversion, that dry and hot layer of air a few thousand feet up, will be pretty strong. Additionally convergence on the dryline doesn’t look that strong. Wave Action? The question will be…

Monday/Tuesday Get Outlined By SPC

Monday and Tuesday have received official severe weather risk outlines from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman. We’ll dive into both days a bit more later today, but it does seem likely we’ll have a lot of storms as a big storm system ejects east over the Plains and South early next week. We’re monitoring…

Our Next Severe Weather Threat

We’re watching our next chance of storm chasing and severe weather take shape as soon as possibly Sunday and especially into Monday and Tuesday. A trough of low pressure will slide east, bringing lift over a broad warm and moist airmass. This is the classic setup for severe weather over the Plains and Southeast this…

How Reliable Are These Cloud Forecasts Right Now?

These types of images are going to be flooding social media over the coming 5-7 days with very dire declarations about cloud cover and the solar eclipse. Don’t trust anything right now. We will know more about when/where clouds are more likely than not in about a week, but we won’t know for sure until…

Photogenic Storms Tomorrow?

Taking a brief look at tomorrow, while moisture is certainly limited, a disturbance will cross across Texas with a chance of a severe storm or two. The wind shear is as such that if you could get a supercell to establish, it may actually be quite photogenic with big looping hodographs throughout the column.  On…

Tornadoes Possible Today

A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms exists over parts of the Central and Southern Plains today and tonight. The primary threats are large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. Location Central and Southern Plains, including portions of: Oklahoma Kansas Texas Threats Large hail Damaging wind gusts A few tornadoes (highest risk during the…

Tomorrow: Big Day, Or a Bust?

A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms exists Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across parts of the Southern and Central Plains. The main threats are large hail and a few tornadoes, with the possibility of some severe wind gusts. Location: Western Oklahoma Western & Central Kansas Northern Texas Threats: Large hail A few tornadoes (mainly a…

Sunday Will Be a Busy Severe Weather Day

Severe weather is possible this Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area in a slight risk. The primary threats will be large hail and potentially a few tornadoes. Damaging winds will become more possible in the evening as a line takes shape….

Sunday Could Be A Busy Day

Looking ahead to Sunday, a powerful system will be nosing into the Plains with a trailing dryline through Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Storm development in this area is more likely in the northern half than the southern half — but anywhere storms form should lead to a risk of severe weather with tornadoes possible. Moisture…

Storms Forming Soon

Storms are in the process of firing across portions of North Texas where ample sunshine this afternoon has given way to weak instability. These cells will likely be low-topped in nature with a threat of marginally severe hail initially (think hail sizes 1-inch or so in size). With time, storms should form into linear bands,…

Low Severe Weather Risk Today

A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms exists today into early tonight from far Southern Oklahoma to Southeast Texas. The primary threats are large hail and strong wind gusts. Location Southeast Texas Far Southern Oklahoma Potential for limited impacts in southwest Louisiana Threats Isolated large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) Strong wind gusts (up to 60…

Southern Plains Marginal Risk Today

A marginal risk extends along a frontal zone and dryline today from the eastern Texas Panhandle into Western/Northern Oklahoma. Storms should form this afternoon, with a weak/brief tornado threat initially followed by hail and damaging winds into the evening. We’re watching this setup for the very low tornado threat and possibility of photogenic storms near…

Increasing Warmth/Moisture Ahead of System Tomorrow`

It’s not much, but the typical downslope SW winds across the region have warmed up temps ahead of tomorrow’s system which will bring a marginal risk of severe weather to portions of the Southern Plains. Deeper moisture is lurking south, but the dewpoint values leave little to be desired, only getting into the 40s. Still,…

Marginal Risk of Severe Storms Tomorrow

A Marginal Risk exists for severe thunderstorms in the following areas: Late Wednesday afternoon/evening: Texas Panhandle and adjacent Western Oklahoma. Wednesday night: Near and south of the Texas Hill Country into the middle Texas coastal plain. Threats: Potential for some severe hail Locally strong wind gusts Timing Texas Panhandle & Western Oklahoma: Late Wednesday afternoon…

Expect Strong/Severe Storms Wednesday

We’ll be keeping our eyes on Wednesday as our next chance of severe weather in the region. Moisture looks very meager, so this is likely just a damaging winds and large hail threat. As the system that has been sitting over Arizona for a week kicks through, cooler air will try to filter south —…

Stormy Week, But Will It Be Severe?

The overwhelming feeling I get when looking at weather models in this current pattern is, “This would be a much bigger deal in May than it is in March.” What we’re seeing on models right now is a lack of surface moisture. Surface moisture acts to increase instability to the point that, even with the…

Here is Where Drought Conditions Are the Worst

I always believe that drought conditions can drive much of our Spring severe weather season. Drought is an important ingredient from stronger-than-average capping inversions due to drought in places like New Mexico to dry topsoils pushing drylines further east than usual. As we enter mid-March, there’s a lot of drought across the Southwest, particularly far…

A Few Severe Hailers in South Texas Today

Hail is the primary threat with storms that will form throughout the day across Southern Texas. Some of these storms may acquire updraft rotation and become supercells. Threats Large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter) Isolated damaging wind gusts Timing Late this afternoon into tonight Discussion Weather Pattern A closed upper-level low over Arizona…

Looking Ahead: S. Texas and Gulf Coast Severe Risks this Weekend

For most of the Central U.S., we’re looking at a quiet weekend with cooler weather and perhaps some rainfall depending on your location. A cold front has shoved south and has taken the storm fuel with it to South Texas. Risks over the weekend are mainly for large hail and damaging winds, we’re not expecting…

Enhanced Threat of Tornadoes Today

An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms exists today from southeastern Oklahoma to southern Missouri. Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and strong to locally severe wind gusts are possible. Location Southeastern Oklahoma Arkansas Southern Missouri Potentially extending into portions of: Northeastern Texas Eastern Oklahoma Mississippi Valley Tennessee Valley Ohio Valley Threats Tornadoes Large to very…

Storms Start Early Today

Models are showing a likely early start (well before noon) of thunderstorms today. These early storms will pose a large hail risk. The tornado threat will increase through the day and the exact threat will be dependent on how crowded and messy storm modes get. We’ll have a full forecast out later this morning.

Enhanced Threat of Severe Weather in NE Kansas/NW Missouri

An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms exists this afternoon and evening for parts of northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. This risk includes the Topeka and Kansas City metro areas. Large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are the main threats. Isolated severe storms are also possible in portions of the…

Extreme Fire Risk Today

An Extremely Critical fire weather area is designated for the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma, highlighting a wildfire outbreak risk. Conditions are deteriorating rapidly through this morning, demanding heightened awareness and urgent precautions: Early Indicators: Conditions are already concerning with humidity plunging into the teens and low 20s, accompanied by winds around 15 mph. Escalating…

Model Trends for Tomorrow Are Dry

Both the SREF and the HREF, two short-term ensemble models that combine multiple weather models into one output, are trending towards few to no storms before sunset tomorrow. This isn’t that surprising, but it is notable how stingy every model is with storm coverage in the daylight hours tomorrow. There’s a marked trend for storms…

Wildfire Outbreak Possible Tomorrow

The SPC is warning of a ‘wildfire outbreak’ being possible tomorrow from eastern New Mexico into Western Oklahoma, including much of the Texas Panhandle. An Extremely Critical fire weather designation is in effect for the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma, indicating a high potential for a catastrophic wildfire outbreak. Meteorological conditions pose a dire threat,…