A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms exists Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across parts of the Southern and Central Plains. The main threats are large hail and a few tornadoes, with the possibility of some severe wind gusts.

Location:

  • Western Oklahoma
  • Western & Central Kansas
  • Northern Texas

Threats:

  • Large hail
  • A few tornadoes (mainly a brief window of time in south-central Kansas/north-central Oklahoma)
  • Occasional severe wind gusts

Timing:

  • Sunday afternoon through Sunday night

Discussion

  • Weather Pattern: A shortwave trough will move across the Southwest, triggering a low-pressure system in the Central High Plains. Expect strong winds at various levels in the atmosphere.

Storm Development:

  • Storms are most likely to begin in southwest Kansas in the late afternoon, initially as discrete supercells.
  • Initiation is less certain farther south (western Oklahoma, northwest Texas) due to weaker ascent and warmer temperatures aloft. However, models are now pretty consistent in storm formation as far south as the Red River.
  • Storms may grow upscale into clusters by evening, with less overall intensity and a more elevated character.

Primary Threats:

  • Large hail is the main threat initially.
  • A brief window for a few tornadoes exists as storms move into south-central Kansas/north-central Oklahoma, where a strengthening low-level jet increases wind shear. If signals strengthen, I would not be surprised to see the tornado risk upgraded in this area into tomorrow.

Uncertainties:

  • Limited Moisture: While overall conditions are favorable, the lack of richer low-level moisture is a limiting factor for storm intensity across much of the risk area.
  • Storm Evolution: Storms may become messy and elevated quickly, reducing the overall severe threat.