The Plains have been pretty slow in terms of actual tornado production so far this Spring — but that’s neither unexpected or unusual. And what is also not unexpected: it’s about to get a lot busier.

There is consensus agreement amongst weather models, from ensembles to climate models, etc., on big-picture details of how the pattern is set to evolve in the coming weeks. This is highly unusual and somewhat alarming, given that they’re all agreeing on a traditionally favorable pattern for severe weather in the Central U.S.

Let’s break it down.