A major arctic intrusion is set to spill down the country just in time for Christmas. Temperatures below zero will be very common in the Central and Southern Plains by Friday morning. There will also be a chance of snow Thursday as the front passes.

Temperatures on Friday, December 23, at 6 a.m. according to the European model.

This is incredible cold

Listen folks, it takes a lot to impress even me — your local spring and summer thunderstorm enthusiast — during winter. It is even more notable when what is impressing me has nothing to do with precipitation, but rather temperature.

  • We mentioned to a Titan reader on Facebook who was comforted by the 40s models were showing a few days ago that these air masses have a nasty way of being much colder than models project at the 7-12 day range. That is exactly what has happened.
  • Below Zero readings will be common across the Central and Southern Plains. While models are showing single digits right now on average across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, below zero readings will likely occur in many areas — especially where any snow is on the ground.
  • This is dangerous, deadly cold — please bring any pets indoors.

The depth of the cold air isn’t incredibly deep. While the airmass is incredibly cold — it should modify heavily by the end of the weekend. This will result in much warmer temperatures by next week.


What I find myself really impressed by is also how dry the air is behind the front. Below zero dewpoints will reach all the way to the Texas coast by Friday morning. Dewpoints in the -20sF will be possible in Oklahoma. That is incredible.


As of right now, it does look like the frontal passage and passing storm system will bring enough lift to generate some snow showers for the region as well. Honestly, who will get snow is somewhat hard to pin down at this range but my first best guess is the further north and east you are in the region, the more likely it is you see snow.

  • Right now major snowfall totals don’t appear to be widespread. But we know all too well that for parts of the region only an inch or two can cause major headaches.
  • If any deeper accumulations fall, it is almost certain to remain until Christmas.
  • So if you are dreaming of a white Christmas, this might be your best opportunity since 2009 for parts of the region.

Snow should occur along and behind the surface front on Thursday associated with the front aloft.


The Euro’s depiction of what areas could see snowfall this week. The NBM is more aggressive with a lot of areas north of I-40 getting snowfall. We’ll update on the snow chances later this week as models come into better agreement. Again, I think the further north and east you are in the region, the more likely it is you see snow from this system.

Dreaming of a white Christmas? 

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