By the time you are reading this, we very well might have a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. This storm will make landfall somewhere in South Texas it looks, with sustained winds in the 45-55mph range and torrential rainfall likely. 

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Expect landfall to come tomorrow morning, with heavy rain/strong winds being likely across much of South Texas.

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The heaviest rainfall totals should spread down the Rio Grande Valley, which may lead to some localized flooding on some stretches of the river. The totals from this don’t look catastrophic, but given the ongoing drought conditions and the proclivity of this region to not get these types of rainfall totals often, some flash flooding will be likely and we know how dangerous that is.

Additionally, there will be at least a low chance of a few tornadoes as this storm comes ashore across South and Central Texas.

Broader View

We will likely have four named storms soon in the Atlantic basin, but none are expected to be major threats to the U.S. coastline over the next several days.

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Looking ahead, conditions will likely remain favorable for storm development/intensification in the Atlantic Basin for a couple more weeks. While nothing looks like an imminent threat of a major storm for now, this is the time of year we can go from ‘nothing major’ to ‘something really bad is coming’ fast. If you live in a Hurricane prone area (and if you live near the East Coast/Gulf Coast that is you) — it’s a good time to definitely begin paying more attention to the tropics.

Severe Weather?

For the bulk of our readers who live in the Central/Southern Plains — I’m not seeing much to get excited about for this week in terms of severe weather chances. The big story is, and will remain, the absolutely scorching heat over the region. Some parts of the region, including North Texas, are having one of their hottest summers ever.

Stay cool out there.