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Anatomy of a Bust (11/30/23 Review)

The lack of soundings in the area has always haunted me when I chase in Central Or South Texas (Upper-left graphic). Yesterday is a prime example of how, if you read between the lines, the capping that showed up on 18z Corpus Christi sounding was evident in Northern Mexico a few hours prior.  This, along…

This Is A Wild Forecast Bust

You would be forgiven if you thought this image was from a day with no severe weather risk outlined at all, much less with a 10% tornado risk outlined in the initial outlooks this morning. I’m sure we’ll get a rogue severe weather report in by the end of the night with a line of…

Tornado Threat in SE Texas

If storms can get going across SE Texas, a tornado threat will undoubtedly evolve. The SPC has an enhanced risk of tornadoes that runs from Houston to the west near San Antonio. The bottom two graphics show the 0-1km storm-relative helicity — where values of over 100 are widespread on the bottom left. On the…